Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference7-1#6 (+9.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
95· ARating
95· APer play
97· A+Consistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
79· BRating
63· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.237
Defensive EPA/play
-0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.6%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.254
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
+1.88
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#5
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3812App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3803Texas A&M2020OA +0.039 / +0.018similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3744NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3645Arizona State2024OA +0.053 / +0.018similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA362

2020 Schedule & Results

8 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Nebraska52-17W-26.3W68O
9@ Penn State38-25W-12.0W64U
10vs Rutgers49-27W-37.5L64.5O
12vs Indiana42-35W-20.5L66.5O
14@ Michigan State52-12W-23.5W59.5O
16vs Northwestern22-10W-19.0L56U
18@ Clemson49-28W----
19@ Alabama24-52L+8.5L74.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-4
50.0%
O/U Record
6-2
75.0%
Straight Up
7-1
87.5%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off99thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off91thPass Def52thRush Def34thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19494th+0.04445th
Red Zone-0.02948th+0.01444th
Third Down+0.37491th+0.11638th
No Garbage Time+0.23996th-0.02966th
First Half+0.29497th-0.06781th
Second Half+0.07670th+0.13519th
Early Downs+0.14595th+0.03141th
Passing Downs+0.18079th+0.04052th
Standard Downs+0.20099th+0.04734th
Goal to Go+0.01750th+0.19324th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.5%Rush 60.5%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
+1.3
Explosive/G
18.4
Yards/Game
519.4
Pts/Drive
3.25
3rd Down%
49.1%
3&Out%
13.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 8 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points328206
Points / Game41.025.8
First Downs
Total199166
Rushing8844
Passing91110
Penalty2012
Rushing
Attempts345233
Yards2,055781
Yards / Carry6.03.4
Yards / Game256.997.6
Touchdowns1910
Passing
Attempts225316
Completions158209
Completion %70.2%66.1%
Yards2,1002,432
Yards / Attempt9.37.7
Touchdowns2216
Interceptions67
Passer Rating175.56143.07
Total Offense
Plays570549
Yards4,1553,213
Yards / Play7.35.9
Yards / Game519.4401.6
Punt Returns
Returns105
Yards6298
Average6.219.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns719
Yards93337
Average13.317.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3041
Yards1,3341,828
Average44.544.6
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards10557
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles916
Lost312
Penalties
Penalties4945
Yards435414
Yards / Game54.451.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1927:36
Third Downs
Attempts106105
Conversions5239
Conversion %49.1%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts915
Conversions58
Conversion %55.6%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips4429
Scores (TD + FG)3425
Score %77.3%86.2%
Touchdowns2820
TD %63.6%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts118
Made77
Pct63.6%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4321
Made4321
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts16
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →