Fourth Down Data
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ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference11-3#29 (+4.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
87· BPer play
94· AConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
59· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.121
Defensive EPA/play
-0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.88
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
AP 22 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#78
model 49 higher
Recruiting Rank
#50
model 21 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
91th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, run defense3692Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3673Ohio State2018OA +0.108 / +0.044similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3644Ohio State2020OA +0.077 / +0.018similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3625Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, havoc rate358

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Wyoming48-7W-7.0W48O
2vs Mississippi State30-23W0.0W59.5U
3@ Texas State31-28W----
4@ Texas Tech22-30L+2.5L59.5U
6vs Kansas35-31W+6.5W45O
7vs Utah27-19W----
8@ Cincinnati14-24L+2.5L53.5U
10@ Oklahoma State42-21W-2.5W58.5O
11vs UCF35-31W-3.0W55.5O
12@ Kansas State24-14W+9.5W50U
13vs BYU28-23W-3.0W48.5O
14@ Arizona49-7W-9.0W53.5O
15vs Iowa State45-19W-1.5W49.5O
19vs Texas31-39L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
12-2
85.7%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS8-0
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS8-0
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off86thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off82thPass Def76thRush Def31thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11989th-0.00852th
Red Zone+0.07063th+0.05039th
Third Down+0.27582th+0.22121th
No Garbage Time+0.12288th-0.01354th
First Half+0.16693th-0.08675th
Second Half+0.07072th+0.06924th
Early Downs+0.09389th-0.02349th
Passing Downs+0.15684th-0.10076th
Standard Downs+0.10186th+0.04131th
Goal to Go+0.17971th-0.29288th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.3%Rush 60.7%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
429.4
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
15.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points461316
Points / Game32.922.6
First Downs
Total315284
Rushing15595
Passing135162
Penalty2527
Rushing
Attempts591430
Yards2,7991,581
Yards / Carry4.73.7
Yards / Game199.9112.9
Touchdowns3019
Passing
Attempts382479
Completions234283
Completion %61.3%59.1%
Yards3,2133,174
Yards / Attempt8.46.6
Touchdowns2619
Interceptions616
Passer Rating151.23121.15
Total Offense
Plays973909
Yards6,0124,755
Yards / Play6.25.2
Yards / Game429.4339.6
Punt Returns
Returns116
Yards149135
Average13.522.5
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1126
Yards181481
Average16.518.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4050
Yards1,6292,145
Average40.742.9
Interception Returns
Returns166
Yards1554
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles614
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties9076
Yards751678
Yards / Game53.648.4
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3727:23
Third Downs
Attempts196186
Conversions9080
Conversion %45.9%43.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3624
Conversions1913
Conversion %52.8%54.2%
Red Zone
Trips5739
Scores (TD + FG)4333
Score %75.4%84.6%
Touchdowns3625
TD %63.2%64.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2023
Made1115
Pct55.0%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5832
Made5631
Pct96.6%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts47
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →