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MIZ
Missouri
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-5#15 (+8.63)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
88· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
85· BPer play
94· AConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
64· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.102
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.109
Defensive EPA/play
-0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.8%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.158
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.035
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.82
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.20
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#45
model 30 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense87th
Opp-adjusted defense83th
Offensive EPA/play86th
Defensive EPA/play64th
Offensive success rate92th
Explosiveness59th
Defensive havoc36th
Points per drive88th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UTSA2021OA +0.149 / +0.028similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4692Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3683Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3674North Carolina2019OA +0.113 / -0.014similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3645Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: rushing offense, passing offense, pass defense359
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UT Martin | 51-14 | W | -9.5 | L | 72.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Wyoming | 40-13 | W | -19.0 | W | 53 | P |
| 3 | @ Purdue | 40-37 | W | -5.0 | L | 68 | O |
| 4 | vs Georgia | 29-43 | L | +14.5 | W | 68 | O |
| 6 | @ South Carolina | 35-37 | L | -1.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Alabama | 10-39 | L | +28.0 | L | 72.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Memphis | 65-33 | W | -8.5 | W | 69.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Kentucky | 14-15 | L | -7.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Florida | 38-17 | W | +6.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Vanderbilt | 33-28 | W | -13.5 | L | 65 | U |
| 12 | @ Tennessee | 50-17 | W | -5.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 13 | vs Arkansas | 38-0 | W | -24.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 18 | @ Oklahoma State | 33-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.076 | 80th | -0.033 | 60th |
| Red Zone | +0.007 | 47th | -0.166 | 84th |
| Third Down | +0.041 | 48th | -0.163 | 88th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.110 | 86th | -0.027 | 58th |
| First Half | +0.127 | 91th | -0.071 | 69th |
| Second Half | +0.016 | 56th | +0.005 | 48th |
| Early Downs | +0.084 | 89th | +0.030 | 30th |
| Passing Downs | +0.090 | 75th | -0.027 | 58th |
| Standard Downs | +0.069 | 77th | -0.037 | 60th |
| Goal to Go | +0.021 | 43th | -0.107 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
481.8
Pts/Drive
2.82
3rd Down%
46.4%
3&Out%
20.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Missouri | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 476 | 331 |
| Points / Game | 36.6 | 25.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 320 | 244 |
| Rushing | 129 | 84 |
| Passing | 160 | 137 |
| Penalty | 31 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 553 | 444 |
| Yards | 2,631 | 1,644 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 202.4 | 126.5 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 451 | 445 |
| Completions | 281 | 248 |
| Completion % | 62.3% | 55.7% |
| Yards | 3,632 | 3,406 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 146.89 | 133.33 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,004 | 889 |
| Yards | 6,263 | 5,050 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 481.8 | 388.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 13 |
| Yards | 52 | 131 |
| Average | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 29 |
| Yards | 334 | 612 |
| Average | 19.6 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 66 |
| Yards | 2,222 | 2,545 |
| Average | 43.6 | 38.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 8 |
| Yards | 117 | 107 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 14 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 90 | 87 |
| Yards | 800 | 759 |
| Yards / Game | 61.5 | 58.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:53 | 29:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 207 | 184 |
| Conversions | 96 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 46.4% | 34.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 25 |
| Conversions | 8 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 53.3% | 28.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 54 | 40 |
| Score % | 87.1% | 88.9% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 25 |
| TD % | 61.3% | 55.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 25 |
| Made | 25 | 20 |
| Pct | 73.5% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 36 |
| Made | 51 | 35 |
| Pct | 94.4% | 97.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.