Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#34 (+8.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
76· BRating
76· BPer play
64· CConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
59· CPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.113
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
recruiting 4 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3992Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3883Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense3884Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3785NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA373

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Carolina24-20W-6.0W56.5O
2vs Miami28-25W+5.0W46O
3@ Wake Forest18-24L+3.0L65U
4vs App State31-34L-1.5L58O
5vs Clemson20-21L+27.5W61U
6@ Georgia Tech38-22W-9.5W47O
8@ Virginia Tech41-43L-4.5L57.5O
9vs Duke20-17W-2.5W52.5U
10vs Virginia31-38L-1.0L48O
12@ Pittsburgh27-34L+4.0L48.5O
13vs Mercer56-7W----
14@ NC State41-10W-11.5W57.5U
18@ Temple55-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off78thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off44thPass Def51thRush Def53thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08882th-0.01157th
Red Zone+0.03163th-0.01653th
Third Down+0.00144th+0.01153th
No Garbage Time+0.08977th-0.02662th
First Half+0.00851th+0.02043th
Second Half+0.16398th-0.04767th
Early Downs+0.08181th-0.03166th
Passing Downs+0.13278th-0.01351th
Standard Downs+0.06678th-0.01053th
Goal to Go-0.11738th+0.01943th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
474.0
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points430308
Points / Game33.123.7
First Downs
Total315253
Rushing13193
Passing167134
Penalty1726
Rushing
Attempts528472
Yards2,4461,866
Yards / Carry4.64.0
Yards / Game188.2143.5
Touchdowns1319
Passing
Attempts431421
Completions265253
Completion %61.5%60.1%
Yards3,7162,985
Yards / Attempt8.67.1
Touchdowns3918
Interceptions714
Passer Rating160.52127.11
Total Offense
Plays959893
Yards6,1624,851
Yards / Play6.45.4
Yards / Game474.0373.2
Punt Returns
Returns1316
Yards81139
Average6.28.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2433
Yards518721
Average21.621.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6070
Yards2,4793,126
Average41.344.7
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards5886
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1619
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties8073
Yards701555
Yards / Game53.942.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2029:40
Third Downs
Attempts191188
Conversions7970
Conversion %41.4%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2316
Conversions158
Conversion %65.2%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5544
Scores (TD + FG)4936
Score %89.1%81.8%
Touchdowns3125
TD %56.4%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2823
Made1914
Pct67.9%60.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4936
Made4934
Pct100.0%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts64
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →