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MIZ
Missouri
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference11-2#18 (+6.88)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
87· BOverall
Offense
85· BRating
87· BPer play
85· BConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
55· CPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.124
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.129
Defensive EPA/play
-0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#41
model 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#25
model 7 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense94th
Opp-adjusted defense83th
Offensive EPA/play88th
Defensive EPA/play55th
Offensive success rate80th
Explosiveness74th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive86th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3962UTSA2021OA +0.149 / +0.028similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3863Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3864Ohio State2022OA +0.221 / +0.040similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3845LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: run defense, havoc rate, rushing offense375
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Dakota | 35-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Middle Tennessee | 23-19 | W | -21.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Kansas State | 30-27 | W | +3.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Memphis | 34-27 | W | -6.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Vanderbilt | 38-21 | W | -13.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 6 | vs LSU | 39-49 | L | +5.5 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Kentucky | 38-21 | W | +2.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 8 | vs South Carolina | 34-12 | W | -7.0 | W | 59.75 | U |
| 10 | @ Georgia | 21-30 | L | +15.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Tennessee | 36-7 | W | +1.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Florida | 33-31 | W | -7.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Arkansas | 48-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @ Ohio State | 14-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.115 | 88th | -0.018 | 59th |
| Red Zone | +0.071 | 67th | -0.136 | 79th |
| Third Down | +0.155 | 39th | +0.269 | 27th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.125 | 87th | -0.012 | 56th |
| First Half | +0.126 | 84th | -0.065 | 81th |
| Second Half | +0.103 | 84th | +0.023 | 42th |
| Early Downs | +0.068 | 88th | -0.095 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | +0.182 | 80th | -0.020 | 74th |
| Standard Downs | +0.082 | 83th | -0.016 | 49th |
| Goal to Go | -0.095 | 29th | -0.059 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.2%Rush 56.8%
Havoc/Game
15.3
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
434.3
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
13.4%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Missouri | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 423 | 271 |
| Points / Game | 32.5 | 20.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 234 |
| Rushing | 123 | 91 |
| Passing | 140 | 119 |
| Penalty | 21 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 496 | 421 |
| Yards | 2,236 | 1,597 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 172.0 | 122.8 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 8 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 378 | 406 |
| Completions | 248 | 250 |
| Completion % | 65.6% | 61.6% |
| Yards | 3,410 | 2,772 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 157.76 | 132.38 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 874 | 827 |
| Yards | 5,646 | 4,369 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 434.3 | 336.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 10 |
| Yards | 71 | 63 |
| Average | 7.9 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 25 |
| Yards | 383 | 476 |
| Average | 19.1 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 50 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,053 | 2,781 |
| Average | 41.1 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 7 |
| Yards | 47 | 76 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 23 |
| Lost | 2 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 97 |
| Yards | 709 | 786 |
| Yards / Game | 54.5 | 60.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:25 | 29:34 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 179 |
| Conversions | 72 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 42.6% | 36.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 18 |
| Conversions | 11 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 56 | 32 |
| Score % | 96.6% | 82.1% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 21 |
| TD % | 62.1% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 22 |
| Made | 24 | 17 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 77.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 30 |
| Made | 45 | 30 |
| Pct | 97.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.