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ORST
Oregon State
BeaversBalancedPac-12 Conference8-5#15 (+7.07)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
89· BRating
85· BPer play
84· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
67· CRating
57· CPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.111
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.119
Defensive EPA/play
-0.018
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.282
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.86
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.94
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#27
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 49 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense91th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play86th
Defensive EPA/play57th
Offensive success rate87th
Explosiveness93th
Defensive havoc90th
Points per drive90th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Army2018OA +0.131 / +0.059similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, havoc rate3822TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3643Buffalo2020OA +0.050 / +0.018similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive success rate3574Minnesota2019OA +0.177 / +0.011similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3555Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate352
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ San José State | 42-17 | W | -16.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 2 | vs UC Davis | 55-7 | W | -23.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 3 | vs San Diego State | 26-9 | W | -24.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Washington State | 35-38 | L | -4.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Utah | 21-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ California | 52-40 | W | -9.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 7 | vs UCLA | 36-24 | W | -4.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Arizona | 24-27 | L | -3.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Colorado | 26-19 | W | -13.5 | L | 62 | U |
| 11 | vs Stanford | 62-17 | W | -21.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Washington | 20-22 | L | +13.5 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Oregon | 7-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @ Notre Dame | 8-40 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.114 | 87th | -0.003 | 53th |
| Red Zone | +0.301 | 97th | +0.123 | 22th |
| Third Down | +0.212 | 54th | -0.047 | 91th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.116 | 86th | -0.028 | 63th |
| First Half | +0.090 | 71th | -0.078 | 84th |
| Second Half | +0.137 | 94th | +0.075 | 25th |
| Early Downs | +0.083 | 93th | -0.040 | 49th |
| Passing Downs | +0.109 | 67th | -0.030 | 79th |
| Standard Downs | +0.117 | 93th | +0.012 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | +0.353 | 95th | -0.092 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.1%Rush 53.9%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
22.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
409.2
Pts/Drive
2.86
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
12.4%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oregon State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 414 | 298 |
| Points / Game | 31.8 | 22.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 279 | 260 |
| Rushing | 122 | 102 |
| Passing | 143 | 133 |
| Penalty | 14 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 445 | 413 |
| Yards | 2,172 | 1,485 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 167.1 | 114.2 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 380 | 426 |
| Completions | 222 | 264 |
| Completion % | 58.4% | 62.0% |
| Yards | 3,148 | 3,066 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 146.38 | 134.61 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 825 | 839 |
| Yards | 5,320 | 4,551 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 409.2 | 350.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 13 |
| Yards | 234 | 56 |
| Average | 18.0 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 22 |
| Yards | 518 | 396 |
| Average | 18.5 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 39 | 48 |
| Yards | 1,597 | 1,994 |
| Average | 40.9 | 41.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 8 |
| Yards | 153 | 28 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 15 |
| Lost | 5 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 68 |
| Yards | 655 | 481 |
| Yards / Game | 50.4 | 37.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:43 | 29:17 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 148 | 165 |
| Conversions | 57 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 39.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 23 |
| Conversions | 17 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 56.7% | 56.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 36 |
| Score % | 97.6% | 81.8% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 29 |
| TD % | 78.6% | 65.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 17 |
| Made | 13 | 11 |
| Pct | 92.9% | 64.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 33 |
| Made | 49 | 33 |
| Pct | 98.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.