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ARMY
Army
Black KnightsRun-HeavyAmerican Conference11-2#29 (+5.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
89· BRating
92· A-Per play
79· BConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
62· CPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.131
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.142
Defensive EPA/play
-0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.3%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.044
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.18
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 48 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense95th
Opp-adjusted defense71th
Offensive EPA/play92th
Defensive EPA/play62th
Offensive success rate88th
Explosiveness69th
Defensive havoc86th
Points per drive96th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon State2023OA +0.111 / +0.063similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, havoc rate3822Texas A&M2020OA +0.039 / +0.018similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3723Navy2019OA +0.142 / +0.034similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3694Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3595Air Force2021OA +0.084 / -0.002similar: run defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate344
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Duke | 14-34 | L | -6.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 2 | vs Liberty | 38-14 | W | -7.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 3 | vs Hawai'i | 28-21 | W | -7.0 | P | 62.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Oklahoma | 21-28 | L | +30.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Buffalo | 42-13 | W | +7.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 7 | @ San José State | 52-3 | W | -17.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Miami (OH) | 31-30 | W | -6.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Eastern Michigan | 37-22 | W | -1.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Air Force | 17-14 | W | -4.5 | L | 41.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Lafayette | 31-13 | W | -46.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Colgate | 28-14 | W | -10.0 | W | 37 | O |
| 15 | vs Navy | 17-10 | W | -7.0 | P | 38.5 | U |
| 17 | vs Houston | 70-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-3-2
70.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.146 | 96th | -0.060 | 73th |
| Red Zone | +0.101 | 73th | +0.154 | 22th |
| Third Down | +0.462 | 98th | -0.115 | 82th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.142 | 93th | -0.048 | 64th |
| First Half | +0.186 | 97th | -0.123 | 80th |
| Second Half | +0.104 | 84th | -0.005 | 51th |
| Early Downs | +0.004 | 58th | +0.035 | 28th |
| Passing Downs | +0.130 | 78th | -0.128 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | +0.153 | 97th | -0.024 | 54th |
| Goal to Go | +0.128 | 61th | +0.351 | 11th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 10.6%Rush 89.4%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
22.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
392.5
Pts/Drive
3.18
3rd Down%
57.1%
3&Out%
14.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Army | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 426 | 230 |
| Points / Game | 32.8 | 17.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 204 |
| Rushing | 230 | 78 |
| Passing | 37 | 107 |
| Penalty | 17 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 824 | 360 |
| Yards | 4,062 | 1,388 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 312.5 | 106.8 |
| Touchdowns | 47 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 98 | 328 |
| Completions | 52 | 193 |
| Completion % | 53.1% | 58.8% |
| Yards | 1,041 | 2,454 |
| Yards / Attempt | 10.6 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 159.74 | 135.74 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 922 | 688 |
| Yards | 5,103 | 3,842 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 392.5 | 295.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 7 |
| Yards | 179 | 51 |
| Average | 14.9 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 45 |
| Yards | 152 | 912 |
| Average | 12.7 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 33 | 47 |
| Yards | 1,230 | 1,839 |
| Average | 37.3 | 39.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 3 |
| Yards | 11 | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 15 |
| Lost | 5 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 63 | 72 |
| Yards | 626 | 549 |
| Yards / Game | 48.2 | 42.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 38:33 | 21:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 196 | 128 |
| Conversions | 112 | 34 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 26.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 30 |
| Conversions | 31 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 86.1% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 30 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 51 | 24 |
| Score % | 87.9% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 21 |
| TD % | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 9 |
| Made | 9 | 7 |
| Pct | 69.2% | 77.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 57 | 25 |
| Made | 57 | 23 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 92.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.