Fourth Down Data
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AF

Air Force

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference10-3#41 (+4.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
89· BRating
86· BPer play
66· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
54· CPer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.084
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.093
Defensive EPA/play
-0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.126
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#44
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 31 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boise State2024OA +0.078 / +0.010similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense3512Army2018OA +0.131 / +0.059similar: run defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3443Minnesota2026OA +0.038 / -0.048similar: run defense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3244Navy2019OA +0.142 / +0.034similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, pass defense3185Army2021OA +0.014 / +0.016similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense316

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lafayette35-14W----
2@ Navy23-3W-7.5W44.5U
3vs Utah State45-49L-14.3L61.5O
4vs Florida Atlantic31-7W-3.5W54U
5@ New Mexico38-10W-11.5W46O
6vs Wyoming24-14W-6.0W46.5U
7@ Boise State24-17W+4.5W51U
8vs San Diego State14-20L-3.5L40U
10vs Army14-21L-2.5L37U
11@ Colorado State35-21W-2.5W45.5O
12@ Nevada41-39W-18.0W50O
13vs UNLV48-14W----
18@ Louisville31-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off71thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off91thPass Def47thRush Def54thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08283th-0.01048th
Red Zone+0.16090th-0.14674th
Third Down+0.35791th+0.25518th
No Garbage Time+0.09588th-0.03154th
First Half+0.15791th-0.09279th
Second Half+0.00650th+0.07519th
Early Downs-0.01747th-0.02456th
Passing Downs+0.12486th+0.00347th
Standard Downs+0.06371th-0.01954th
Goal to Go+0.34094th+0.00849th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 11.9%Rush 88.1%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
22.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
422.3
Pts/Drive
2.86
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAir ForceOpponents
Scoring
Points403257
Points / Game31.019.8
First Downs
Total280198
Rushing22581
Passing44103
Penalty1114
Rushing
Attempts832401
Yards4,2611,376
Yards / Carry5.13.4
Yards / Game327.8105.8
Touchdowns4418
Passing
Attempts112342
Completions54192
Completion %48.2%56.1%
Yards1,2292,518
Yards / Attempt11.07.4
Touchdowns815
Interceptions48
Passer Rating156.82127.78
Total Offense
Plays944743
Yards5,4903,894
Yards / Play5.85.2
Yards / Game422.3299.5
Punt Returns
Returns58
Yards3621
Average7.22.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns835
Yards68799
Average8.522.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4060
Yards1,6072,632
Average40.243.9
Interception Returns
Returns84
Yards5389
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1820
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties5571
Yards505569
Yards / Game38.843.8
Time of Possession
Per Game36:1523:43
Third Downs
Attempts194172
Conversions8869
Conversion %45.4%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4025
Conversions3110
Conversion %77.5%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5836
Scores (TD + FG)4827
Score %82.8%75.0%
Touchdowns3922
TD %67.2%61.1%
Field Goals
Attempts168
Made116
Pct68.8%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4932
Made4831
Pct98.0%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made42
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →