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ARMY
Army
Black KnightsRun-HeavyAmerican Conference9-4#40 (+4.20)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
70· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
86· BPer play
80· BConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
48· CPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.093
Defensive EPA/play
-0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.3%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.083
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.04
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.71
own return game
Return Defense
-0.21
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#40
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#38
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 32 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense53th
Opp-adjusted defense57th
Offensive EPA/play87th
Defensive EPA/play49th
Offensive success rate89th
Explosiveness50th
Defensive havoc71th
Points per drive94th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ohio State2020OA +0.077 / +0.018similar: havoc rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3342Navy2025OA +0.116 / -0.031similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3253App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3194Air Force2021OA +0.084 / -0.002similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense3165East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA307
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Georgia State | 43-10 | W | +2.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Western Kentucky | 38-35 | W | -3.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | vs UConn | 52-21 | W | -34.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Miami (OH) | 23-10 | W | -7.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Ball State | 16-28 | L | -9.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Wisconsin | 14-20 | L | +14.0 | W | 39.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Wake Forest | 56-70 | L | +3.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 10 | @ Air Force | 21-14 | W | +2.5 | W | 37 | U |
| 11 | vs Bucknell | 63-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Massachusetts | 33-17 | W | -37.0 | L | 56 | U |
| 13 | @ Liberty | 31-16 | W | +3.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 15 | @ Navy | 13-17 | L | -7.0 | L | 35.5 | U |
| 17 | vs Missouri | 24-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-6
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.102 | 89th | +0.017 | 41th |
| Red Zone | +0.096 | 74th | +0.232 | 4th |
| Third Down | +0.110 | 56th | +0.511 | 3th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.089 | 85th | -0.027 | 53th |
| First Half | +0.172 | 93th | -0.117 | 86th |
| Second Half | +0.043 | 69th | +0.168 | 5th |
| Early Downs | -0.003 | 52th | -0.017 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | +0.236 | 95th | +0.009 | 46th |
| Standard Downs | +0.045 | 64th | +0.021 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | +0.251 | 89th | +0.283 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 12.7%Rush 87.3%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
375.9
Pts/Drive
3.04
3rd Down%
46.6%
3&Out%
16.3%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Army | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 427 | 290 |
| Points / Game | 32.8 | 22.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 260 | 216 |
| Rushing | 205 | 77 |
| Passing | 41 | 124 |
| Penalty | 14 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 758 | 401 |
| Yards | 3,654 | 1,531 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 281.1 | 117.8 |
| Touchdowns | 46 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 110 | 340 |
| Completions | 60 | 202 |
| Completion % | 54.5% | 59.4% |
| Yards | 1,233 | 2,745 |
| Yards / Attempt | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 176.25 | 135.91 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 868 | 741 |
| Yards | 4,887 | 4,276 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 375.9 | 328.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 8 |
| Yards | 154 | 40 |
| Average | 11.0 | 5.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 30 |
| Yards | 161 | 626 |
| Average | 14.6 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 38 | 40 |
| Yards | 1,676 | 1,588 |
| Average | 44.1 | 39.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 3 |
| Yards | 141 | 83 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 50 | 63 |
| Yards | 479 | 484 |
| Yards / Game | 36.8 | 37.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 35:28 | 24:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 150 |
| Conversions | 82 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 46.6% | 40.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 31 |
| Conversions | 30 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 73.2% | 35.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 29 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 93.5% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 22 |
| TD % | 71.2% | 71.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 12 |
| Made | 9 | 11 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 91.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 34 |
| Made | 52 | 33 |
| Pct | 96.3% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.