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NAVY
Navy
MidshipmenRun-HeavyAmerican Conference11-2#46 (+4.88)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
76· BRating
94· APer play
90· A-Consistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
49· CRating
24· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.116
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.184
Defensive EPA/play
+0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.128
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.083
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.07
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
AP 23 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#47
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense85th
Opp-adjusted defense38th
Offensive EPA/play95th
Defensive EPA/play24th
Offensive success rate90th
Explosiveness95th
Defensive havoc21th
Points per drive92th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, TD drive rate4072UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3633Army2019OA +0.004 / -0.066similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3424Charlotte2019OA +0.119 / -0.146similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3375Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate333
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs VMI | 52-7 | W | -41.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UAB | 38-24 | W | -18.5 | L | 79.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Tulsa | 42-23 | W | -14.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Rice | 21-13 | W | -14.5 | L | 25.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Air Force | 34-31 | W | -13.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Temple | 32-31 | W | +3.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Florida Atlantic | 42-32 | W | -13.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 10 | @ North Texas | 17-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Notre Dame | 10-49 | L | +28.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 12 | vs South Florida | 41-38 | W | +10.0 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Memphis | 28-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | vs Army | 17-16 | W | -1.5 | L | 37.5 | U |
| 19 | @ Cincinnati | 35-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.178 | 96th | +0.085 | 13th |
| Red Zone | +0.174 | 85th | +0.035 | 41th |
| Third Down | +0.441 | 96th | +0.168 | 22th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.180 | 95th | +0.052 | 25th |
| First Half | +0.198 | 96th | +0.113 | 12th |
| Second Half | +0.161 | 91th | +0.053 | 27th |
| Early Downs | +0.081 | 86th | -0.002 | 40th |
| Passing Downs | +0.256 | 94th | +0.033 | 34th |
| Standard Downs | +0.148 | 95th | +0.113 | 7th |
| Goal to Go | +0.080 | 62th | +0.296 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 22.0%Rush 78.0%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
415.6
Pts/Drive
3.07
3rd Down%
51.8%
3&Out%
12.8%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Navy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 409 | 325 |
| Points / Game | 31.5 | 25.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 250 |
| Rushing | 187 | 96 |
| Passing | 65 | 132 |
| Penalty | 13 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 645 | 452 |
| Yards | 3,713 | 1,837 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 285.6 | 141.3 |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 182 | 372 |
| Completions | 106 | 239 |
| Completion % | 58.2% | 64.2% |
| Yards | 1,690 | 2,990 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.3 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 151.41 | 146.63 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 827 | 824 |
| Yards | 5,403 | 4,827 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 415.6 | 371.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 12 |
| Yards | 63 | 106 |
| Average | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 28 |
| Yards | 466 | 531 |
| Average | 21.2 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 37 | 42 |
| Yards | 1,647 | 1,748 |
| Average | 44.5 | 41.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 6 |
| Yards | 36 | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 13 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 57 |
| Yards | 628 | 448 |
| Yards / Game | 48.3 | 34.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:37 | 27:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 164 | 168 |
| Conversions | 85 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 51.8% | 39.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 35 |
| Conversions | 17 | 26 |
| Conversion % | 68.0% | 74.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 39 |
| Score % | 88.9% | 84.8% |
| Touchdowns | 40 | 28 |
| TD % | 74.1% | 60.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 19 |
| Made | 10 | 14 |
| Pct | 90.9% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 53 | 34 |
| Made | 53 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 7 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.