Fourth Down Data
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Boise State

BroncosBalanced
Pac-12 Conference12-2#17 (+7.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
98· A+Per play
87· BConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
79· BRating
56· CPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.177
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.200
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.164
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
AP 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#10
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
model 53 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
97th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3622Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, passing offense3603Ohio State2020OA +0.077 / +0.018similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3594Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3595Ohio State2022OA +0.221 / +0.040similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate351

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia Southern56-45W-13.0L56.5O
2@ Oregon34-37L+18.5W61O
4vs Portland State56-14W-42.0P69O
5vs Washington State45-24W-7.0W63.5O
6vs Utah State62-30W-27.0W65.5O
7@ Hawai'i28-7W-20.5W60.5U
9@ UNLV29-24W-23.5W56O
10vs San Diego State56-24W----
11vs Nevada28-21W-24.0L60.5U
12@ San José State42-21W-13.5W61.5O
13@ Wyoming17-13W-22.5L57.5U
14vs Oregon State34-18W-4.5W57.5U
15vs UNLV21-7W----
19vs Penn State14-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5-1
61.5%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off100thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off87thPass Def14thRush Def75thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17399th+0.01340th
Red Zone+0.33596th-0.05158th
Third Down+0.30087th+0.24618th
No Garbage Time+0.18099th-0.02558th
First Half+0.17794th-0.01550th
Second Half+0.16896th+0.03833th
Early Downs+0.15397th-0.10784th
Passing Downs+0.03653th+0.14414th
Standard Downs+0.237100th-0.07075th
Goal to Go+0.28690th-0.34893th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
16.5
Havoc Rate
25.1%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
466.0
Pts/Drive
2.99
3rd Down%
49.5%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoise StateOpponents
Scoring
Points522316
Points / Game37.322.6
First Downs
Total328241
Rushing15295
Passing154129
Penalty2217
Rushing
Attempts555453
Yards3,3651,712
Yards / Carry6.13.8
Yards / Game240.4122.3
Touchdowns4315
Passing
Attempts415451
Completions261273
Completion %62.9%60.5%
Yards3,1593,380
Yards / Attempt7.67.5
Touchdowns2324
Interceptions77
Passer Rating141.75137.94
Total Offense
Plays970904
Yards6,5245,092
Yards / Play6.75.6
Yards / Game466.0363.7
Punt Returns
Returns2512
Yards109176
Average4.414.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2240
Yards491889
Average22.322.2
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4966
Yards2,1282,925
Average43.444.3
Interception Returns
Returns77
Yards14332
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1220
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties7692
Yards647737
Yards / Game46.252.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5228:08
Third Downs
Attempts184207
Conversions9179
Conversion %49.5%38.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2238
Conversions1519
Conversion %68.2%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips6444
Scores (TD + FG)5633
Score %87.5%75.0%
Touchdowns4725
TD %73.4%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1310
Pct72.2%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6537
Made6536
Pct100.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →