Fourth Down Data
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NAVY

Navy

MidshipmenRun-Heavy
American Conference11-2#19 (+15.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
95· APer play
83· BConsistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
71· BRating
65· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.142
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.172
Defensive EPA/play
-0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.203
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.156
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Army2018OA +0.131 / +0.059similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3692Air Force2019OA +0.120 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3463Army2024OA +0.072 / +0.032similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3434Louisiana Tech2026OA +0.085 / +0.038similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3365Ohio2018OA +0.113 / -0.096similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense327

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Holy Cross45-7W-2.0W53.5U
3vs East Carolina42-10W-7.5W53U
5@ Memphis23-35L+11.0L53.5O
6vs Air Force34-25W+3.0W46.5O
7@ Tulsa45-17W+1.0W52O
8vs South Florida35-3W-15.5W52U
9vs Tulane41-38W-4.5L59O
10@ UConn56-10W-26.5W55O
12@ Notre Dame20-52L+7.0L56O
13vs SMU35-28W-3.5W69U
14@ Houston56-41W-10.0W56O
16vs Army31-7W----
19@ Kansas State20-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS7-1
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off87thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off100thPass Def34thRush Def80thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16996th-0.02662th
Red Zone+0.46398th-0.00950th
Third Down+0.489100th+0.12928th
No Garbage Time+0.17096th-0.01257th
First Half+0.18293th-0.02556th
Second Half+0.15696th-0.02863th
Early Downs+0.00550th-0.08482th
Passing Downs+0.31198th+0.06534th
Standard Downs+0.10887th-0.08480th
Goal to Go+0.28288th-0.04551th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 11.9%Rush 88.1%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
455.8
Pts/Drive
3.21
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
13.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNavyOpponents
Scoring
Points483290
Points / Game37.222.3
First Downs
Total282198
Rushing22884
Passing42102
Penalty1212
Rushing
Attempts773434
Yards4,6871,376
Yards / Carry6.13.2
Yards / Game360.5105.8
Touchdowns5213
Passing
Attempts104343
Completions55194
Completion %52.9%56.6%
Yards1,2382,708
Yards / Attempt11.97.9
Touchdowns1019
Interceptions412
Passer Rating176.92134.16
Total Offense
Plays877777
Yards5,9254,084
Yards / Play6.85.3
Yards / Game455.8314.2
Punt Returns
Returns1812
Yards112104
Average6.28.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1343
Yards220948
Average16.922.0
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts3957
Yards1,6682,372
Average42.841.6
Interception Returns
Returns124
Yards5737
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2021
Lost1210
Penalties
Penalties5457
Yards459438
Yards / Game35.333.7
Time of Possession
Per Game33:3026:30
Third Downs
Attempts171171
Conversions7956
Conversion %46.2%32.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3426
Conversions2614
Conversion %76.5%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips4938
Scores (TD + FG)4730
Score %95.9%78.9%
Touchdowns3922
TD %79.6%57.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1213
Pct70.6%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6235
Made6135
Pct98.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →