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OHIO
Ohio
BobcatsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference9-4#27 (+6.06)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
80· BOverall
Offense
93· ARating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
33· DRating
31· DPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.096
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.200
Defensive EPA/play
+0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.3%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.157
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.048
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.25
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
+0.38
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense91th
Opp-adjusted defense17th
Offensive EPA/play98th
Defensive EPA/play31th
Offensive success rate99th
Explosiveness93th
Defensive havoc80th
Points per drive97th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3642Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3503Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3504Florida2026OA +0.067 / -0.051similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3445UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate334
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Howard | 38-32 | W | -2.5 | W | 49 | U |
| 3 | @ Virginia | 31-45 | L | +5.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Cincinnati | 30-34 | L | +7.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Massachusetts | 58-42 | W | -11.5 | W | 70 | O |
| 6 | @ Kent State | 27-26 | W | -11.0 | L | 69.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Northern Illinois | 21-24 | L | +5.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 8 | vs Bowling Green | 49-14 | W | -16.5 | W | 67 | U |
| 9 | vs Ball State | 52-14 | W | -10.5 | W | 66 | P |
| 10 | @ Western Michigan | 59-14 | W | -3.0 | W | 65 | O |
| 11 | @ Miami (OH) | 28-30 | L | -4.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 12 | vs Buffalo | 52-17 | W | -2.5 | W | 66 | O |
| 13 | vs Akron | 49-28 | W | -24.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 17 | vs San Diego State | 27-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.176 | 98th | +0.043 | 31th |
| Red Zone | +0.169 | 87th | +0.043 | 41th |
| Third Down | +0.436 | 97th | +0.288 | 12th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.202 | 98th | +0.021 | 39th |
| First Half | +0.232 | 98th | +0.015 | 39th |
| Second Half | +0.113 | 86th | +0.073 | 25th |
| Early Downs | +0.105 | 94th | -0.050 | 62th |
| Passing Downs | +0.232 | 94th | +0.198 | 7th |
| Standard Downs | +0.152 | 96th | -0.046 | 63th |
| Goal to Go | -0.012 | 37th | +0.311 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.8%Rush 64.2%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
466.8
Pts/Drive
3.25
3rd Down%
48.7%
3&Out%
16.7%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 521 | 320 |
| Points / Game | 40.1 | 24.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 318 | 256 |
| Rushing | 169 | 100 |
| Passing | 119 | 138 |
| Penalty | 30 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 557 | 412 |
| Yards | 3,358 | 1,782 |
| Yards / Carry | 6.0 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 258.3 | 137.1 |
| Touchdowns | 40 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 310 | 422 |
| Completions | 184 | 256 |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 60.7% |
| Yards | 2,710 | 3,300 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 154.24 | 137.54 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 867 | 834 |
| Yards | 6,068 | 5,082 |
| Yards / Play | 7.0 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 466.8 | 390.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 15 |
| Yards | 191 | 95 |
| Average | 9.1 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 56 |
| Yards | 948 | 845 |
| Average | 23.7 | 15.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 43 | 61 |
| Yards | 1,867 | 2,369 |
| Average | 43.4 | 38.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 8 |
| Yards | 105 | 121 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 21 |
| Lost | 11 | 16 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 97 |
| Yards | 652 | 891 |
| Yards / Game | 50.2 | 68.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:19 | 26:34 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 156 | 169 |
| Conversions | 76 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 48.7% | 43.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 15 |
| Conversions | 9 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 69.2% | 46.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 72 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 64 | 32 |
| Score % | 88.9% | 82.1% |
| Touchdowns | 52 | 26 |
| TD % | 72.2% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 13 |
| Made | 13 | 9 |
| Pct | 76.5% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 68 | 38 |
| Made | 68 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.