Fourth Down Data
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VAN

Vanderbilt

CommodoresBalanced
Southeastern Conference10-3#12 (+19.36)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
96· AConsistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
67· CRating
37· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.271
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.248
Defensive EPA/play
+0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.4%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.236
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#32
model 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
model 37 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4192Tennessee2022OA +0.166 / -0.009similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate4063UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3734Coastal Carolina2021OA +0.090 / -0.035similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate3665Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense363

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Charleston Southern45-3W-38.0W50.25U
2@ Virginia Tech44-20W+2.0W45O
3@ South Carolina31-7W+3.0W48.5U
4vs Georgia State70-21W-28.0W53O
5vs Utah State55-35W-22.5L58.5O
6@ Alabama14-30L+7.5L54U
8vs LSU31-24W-1.5W48O
9vs Missouri17-10W-3.0W22.5O
10@ Texas31-34L+3.0P47O
11vs Auburn45-38W+3.5W48.5O
13vs Kentucky45-17W-21.5W45O
14@ Tennessee45-24W+4.5W77.5U
19vs Iowa27-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
PWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off93thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off91thPass Def32thRush Def39thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22199th+0.02634th
Red Zone+0.10872th-0.02250th
Third Down+0.34291th+0.23013th
No Garbage Time+0.253100th+0.01436th
First Half+0.21298th+0.07916th
Second Half+0.23099th-0.02555th
Early Downs+0.14699th-0.06573th
Passing Downs+0.42899th+0.03632th
Standard Downs+0.13293th+0.02039th
Goal to Go+0.25184th-0.52898th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
463.1
Pts/Drive
3.54
3rd Down%
51.1%
3&Out%
10.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVanderbiltOpponents
Scoring
Points500297
Points / Game38.522.8
First Downs
Total312258
Rushing11484
Passing171152
Penalty2722
Rushing
Attempts406382
Yards2,2821,406
Yards / Carry5.63.7
Yards / Game175.5108.2
Touchdowns3510
Passing
Attempts400458
Completions279305
Completion %69.8%66.6%
Yards3,7383,242
Yards / Attempt9.37.1
Touchdowns3024
Interceptions88
Passer Rating169.00139.85
Total Offense
Plays806840
Yards6,0204,648
Yards / Play7.55.5
Yards / Game463.1357.5
Punt Returns
Returns128
Yards10359
Average8.67.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2418
Yards536344
Average22.319.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2648
Yards1,2192,071
Average46.943.1
Interception Returns
Returns88
Yards9382
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles814
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties9090
Yards791817
Yards / Game60.862.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0128:41
Third Downs
Attempts133181
Conversions6878
Conversion %51.1%43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1921
Conversions1012
Conversion %52.6%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips6043
Scores (TD + FG)5335
Score %88.3%81.4%
Touchdowns4524
TD %75.0%55.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1426
Made1320
Pct92.9%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6430
Made6329
Pct98.4%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →