Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference11-2#17 (+7.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
48· CRating
40· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.090
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.218
Defensive EPA/play
+0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.3%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.210
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.031
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.81
own return game
Return Defense
+0.53
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#3
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
98th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3852Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3673Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate3664Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3605Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, havoc rate358

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs The Citadel52-14W-28.0L52.5O
2vs Kansas49-22W----
3@ Buffalo28-25W-14.0L57.5U
4vs Massachusetts53-3W-36.0W65.5U
5vs UL Monroe59-6W-34.5W56.5O
6@ Arkansas State52-20W----
8@ App State27-30L-17.0L50O
9vs Troy35-28W----
10@ Georgia Southern28-8W-19.5W60.5U
11vs Georgia State40-42L-10.5L52O
12vs Texas State35-21W-22.0L59U
13@ South Alabama27-21W----
16vs Northern Illinois47-41W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-8
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off98thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off98thPass Def34thRush Def37thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def24th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19898th+0.03231th
Red Zone+0.30299th-0.02149th
Third Down+0.46398th+0.21224th
No Garbage Time+0.21999th+0.00441th
First Half+0.23398th+0.00645th
Second Half+0.16297th+0.06024th
Early Downs+0.16299th+0.05022th
Passing Downs+0.25196th+0.04934th
Standard Downs+0.17798th+0.02437th
Goal to Go-0.01753th+0.27611th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
494.7
Pts/Drive
3.53
3rd Down%
53.8%
3&Out%
13.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points532281
Points / Game40.921.6
First Downs
Total310231
Rushing153106
Passing145108
Penalty1217
Rushing
Attempts509477
Yards2,9741,877
Yards / Carry5.83.9
Yards / Game228.8144.4
Touchdowns3621
Passing
Attempts322359
Completions227208
Completion %70.5%57.9%
Yards3,4572,474
Yards / Attempt10.76.9
Touchdowns3315
Interceptions46
Passer Rating192.01126.27
Total Offense
Plays831836
Yards6,4314,351
Yards / Play7.75.2
Yards / Game494.7334.7
Punt Returns
Returns212
Yards2410
Average11.50.0
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns2752
Yards5421,037
Average20.119.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4163
Yards1,5282,492
Average37.339.6
Interception Returns
Returns64
Yards2759
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1519
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties7051
Yards666383
Yards / Game51.229.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1828:42
Third Downs
Attempts143172
Conversions7762
Conversion %53.8%36.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1329
Conversions1013
Conversion %76.9%44.8%
Red Zone
Trips4840
Scores (TD + FG)4331
Score %89.6%77.5%
Touchdowns3925
TD %81.3%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1111
Made910
Pct81.8%90.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6830
Made6529
Pct95.6%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →