Fourth Down Data
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TENN

Tennessee

VolunteersBalanced
Southeastern Conference11-2#4 (+14.43)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
94· APer play
95· AConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
27· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.166
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.179
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.9%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.139
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.43
own return game
Return Defense
+1.72
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#6
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#9
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#17
model 13 spots higher
33 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA4162Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate4063Oklahoma2021OA +0.178 / +0.009similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3934UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3925Jacksonville State2024OA +0.056 / -0.008similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate375

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ball State59-10W----
2@ Pittsburgh34-27W-3.5W58.5O
3vs Akron63-6W-47.0W67.25O
4vs Florida38-33W-10.5L62.5O
6@ LSU40-13W-3.0W64U
7vs Alabama52-49W+7.5W65.5O
8vs UT Martin65-24W----
9vs Kentucky44-6W-12.0W61U
10@ Georgia13-27L+8.5L66U
11vs Missouri66-24W-21.0W56.5O
12@ South Carolina38-63L-21.5L66O
13@ Vanderbilt56-0W-14.0W64.5U
18@ Clemson31-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off99thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off76thPass Def13thRush Def61thRed Zone Def72th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19698th+0.01934th
Red Zone+0.21794th-0.14872th
Third Down+0.21676th+0.06148th
No Garbage Time+0.18196th+0.02433th
First Half+0.22897th+0.02236th
Second Half+0.15795th+0.01633th
Early Downs+0.18499th-0.01042th
Passing Downs+0.18587th+0.13613th
Standard Downs+0.20199th-0.04261th
Goal to Go+0.51199th+0.03641th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
525.5
Pts/Drive
3.58
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
11.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points599296
Points / Game46.122.8
First Downs
Total330307
Rushing13496
Passing155178
Penalty4133
Rushing
Attempts523459
Yards2,5931,505
Yards / Carry5.03.3
Yards / Game199.5115.8
Touchdowns4015
Passing
Attempts422532
Completions290333
Completion %68.7%62.6%
Yards4,2393,764
Yards / Attempt10.07.1
Touchdowns3821
Interceptions311
Passer Rating181.39130.92
Total Offense
Plays945991
Yards6,8325,269
Yards / Play7.25.3
Yards / Game525.5405.3
Punt Returns
Returns204
Yards33129
Average16.67.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1842
Yards338718
Average18.817.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3961
Yards1,4862,539
Average38.141.6
Interception Returns
Returns113
Yards7018
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1516
Lost811
Penalties
Penalties105111
Yards895886
Yards / Game68.868.2
Time of Possession
Per Game25:1434:45
Third Downs
Attempts166189
Conversions6965
Conversion %41.6%34.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3333
Conversions2214
Conversion %66.7%42.4%
Red Zone
Trips6752
Scores (TD + FG)6339
Score %94.0%75.0%
Touchdowns5327
TD %79.1%51.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2023
Made1613
Pct80.0%56.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7832
Made7531
Pct96.2%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →