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OU
Oklahoma
SoonersBalancedSoutheastern Conference11-2#31 (+5.49)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
77· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
97· A+Per play
93· AConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
34· DPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
99· A+Red-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.178
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.172
Defensive EPA/play
+0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.22
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.97
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
AP 21 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#6
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#13
recruiting 18 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense98th
Opp-adjusted defense52th
Offensive EPA/play98th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate95th
Explosiveness89th
Defensive havoc72th
Points per drive97th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tennessee2022OA +0.166 / -0.009similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3932Tennessee2025OA +0.148 / -0.011similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3873Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense3764SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3745Ohio State2021OA +0.248 / -0.001similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA372
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tulane | 40-35 | W | -31.5 | L | 68.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Western Carolina | 76-0 | W | -50.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Nebraska | 23-16 | W | -22.5 | L | 62 | U |
| 4 | vs West Virginia | 16-13 | W | -19.5 | L | - | - |
| 5 | @ Kansas State | 37-31 | W | -10.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Texas | 55-48 | W | -3.5 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 7 | vs TCU | 52-31 | W | -13.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Kansas | 35-23 | W | -38.5 | L | 67 | U |
| 9 | vs Texas Tech | 52-21 | W | -19.5 | W | 66.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Baylor | 14-27 | L | -5.5 | L | 63 | U |
| 12 | vs Iowa State | 28-21 | W | -4.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 13 | @ Oklahoma State | 33-37 | L | +3.8 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Oregon | 47-32 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.182 | 98th | +0.061 | 23th |
| Red Zone | +0.355 | 100th | +0.004 | 39th |
| Third Down | +0.276 | 85th | +0.036 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.180 | 98th | +0.044 | 30th |
| First Half | +0.214 | 98th | -0.043 | 62th |
| Second Half | +0.151 | 96th | +0.173 | 5th |
| Early Downs | +0.080 | 86th | -0.004 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | +0.266 | 98th | +0.166 | 8th |
| Standard Downs | +0.141 | 94th | -0.002 | 47th |
| Goal to Go | +0.223 | 89th | +0.092 | 36th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
450.1
Pts/Drive
3.22
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
14.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 508 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 39.1 | 25.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 291 | 274 |
| Rushing | 111 | 101 |
| Passing | 159 | 152 |
| Penalty | 21 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 448 | 442 |
| Yards | 2,426 | 1,677 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 186.6 | 129.0 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 403 | 445 |
| Completions | 279 | 293 |
| Completion % | 69.2% | 65.8% |
| Yards | 3,425 | 3,403 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.5 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 26 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 162.36 | 144.42 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 851 | 887 |
| Yards | 5,851 | 5,080 |
| Yards / Play | 6.9 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 450.1 | 390.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 69 | 125 |
| Average | 5.8 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 38 |
| Yards | 246 | 925 |
| Average | 18.9 | 24.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 36 | 47 |
| Yards | 1,791 | 2,086 |
| Average | 49.8 | 44.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 9 |
| Yards | 104 | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 27 |
| Lost | 3 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 87 | 82 |
| Yards | 733 | 670 |
| Yards / Game | 56.4 | 51.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:34 | 30:25 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 147 | 177 |
| Conversions | 63 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 37.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 38 |
| Conversions | 11 | 24 |
| Conversion % | 68.8% | 63.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 60 | 40 |
| Score % | 96.8% | 85.1% |
| Touchdowns | 47 | 29 |
| TD % | 75.8% | 61.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 18 |
| Made | 21 | 12 |
| Pct | 77.8% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 38 |
| Made | 61 | 37 |
| Pct | 98.4% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.