Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
TENN

Tennessee

VolunteersBalanced
Southeastern Conference8-5#15 (+15.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
88· BPer play
93· AConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
26· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.148
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.130
Defensive EPA/play
+0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.078
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#11
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#15
model & recruiting agree
48 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2023OA +0.076 / -0.068similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4472SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, run defense4183Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate4014Oklahoma2021OA +0.178 / +0.009similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3875Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense385

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Syracuse45-26W-13.5W52O
2vs East Tennessee State72-17W-54.5W79.5O
3vs Georgia41-44L+2.5L64.5O
4vs UAB56-24W-38.5L69O
5@ Mississippi State41-34W-7.3L69.25O
7vs Arkansas34-31W-6.5L69U
8@ Alabama20-37L+9.5L60U
9@ Kentucky56-34W-7.5W54.5O
10vs Oklahoma27-33L-3.0L55O
12vs New Mexico State42-9W-46.5L64U
13@ Florida31-11W-3.5W58U
14vs Vanderbilt24-45L-4.5L77.5U
19@ Illinois28-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-7
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off72thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off87thPass Def29thRush Def18thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10485th+0.06222th
Red Zone+0.09269th+0.2517th
Third Down+0.31087th+0.09045th
No Garbage Time+0.13089th+0.03927th
First Half+0.15694th-0.01047th
Second Half+0.04473th+0.1364th
Early Downs+0.01459th+0.05817th
Passing Downs+0.20890th+0.05129th
Standard Downs+0.06172th+0.06818th
Goal to Go+0.12566th+0.20122th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
466.3
Pts/Drive
3.17
3rd Down%
50.9%
3&Out%
12.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points517375
Points / Game39.828.8
First Downs
Total330293
Rushing126118
Passing173147
Penalty3128
Rushing
Attempts496488
Yards2,2551,981
Yards / Carry4.54.1
Yards / Game173.5152.4
Touchdowns3524
Passing
Attempts437441
Completions292291
Completion %66.8%66.0%
Yards3,8073,182
Yards / Attempt8.77.2
Touchdowns2619
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating155.05136.28
Total Offense
Plays933929
Yards6,0625,163
Yards / Play6.55.6
Yards / Game466.3397.2
Punt Returns
Returns169
Yards16436
Average10.34.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1112
Yards334204
Average30.417.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3952
Yards1,7172,271
Average44.043.7
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards185222
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1620
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties8079
Yards713674
Yards / Game54.851.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0932:51
Third Downs
Attempts159176
Conversions8172
Conversion %50.9%40.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1725
Conversions1313
Conversion %76.5%52.0%
Red Zone
Trips6345
Scores (TD + FG)5340
Score %84.1%88.9%
Touchdowns4432
TD %69.8%71.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1921
Made1418
Pct73.7%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6740
Made6739
Pct100.0%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →