Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference12-2#8 (+9.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

94· AOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
85· BRating
85· BPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.193
Defensive EPA/play
-0.109
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.302
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
model 13 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#19
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 72 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3622Navy2024OA +0.059 / +0.021similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3583Washington2025OA +0.037 / +0.079similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, passing offense3534Navy2019OA +0.142 / +0.034similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3435Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, run defense324

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lehigh42-7W----
2@ Florida Atlantic24-7W+2.5W44.5U
4vs Rice37-14W-12.5W46.5O
5@ Temple42-14W----
6@ Tulsa49-7W-12.0W51O
7vs UAB44-10W-26.0W54.5U
8vs East Carolina45-28W-15.0W51.5O
10vs Air Force20-3W-22.5L41.5U
11@ North Texas14-3W-5.5W63.5U
13@ Notre Dame14-49L+14.5L44.5O
14vs UTSA29-24W-7.0L55U
15vs Tulane35-14W----
16vs Navy13-31L-6.0L39.5O
18vs Louisiana Tech27-6W-17.5W44U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS8-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off96thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off100thPass Def26thRush Def75thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15096th-0.01757th
Red Zone+0.25592th-0.38599th
Third Down+0.429100th+0.3338th
No Garbage Time+0.19499th-0.08276th
First Half+0.19096th-0.08675th
Second Half+0.11285th+0.06126th
Early Downs+0.06384th-0.09177th
Passing Downs+0.13581th+0.09126th
Standard Downs+0.15696th-0.07475th
Goal to Go+0.40896th-0.54498th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 13.8%Rush 86.2%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
381.1
Pts/Drive
3.59
3rd Down%
48.5%
3&Out%
10.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points435217
Points / Game31.115.5
First Downs
Total292229
Rushing23098
Passing44118
Penalty1813
Rushing
Attempts764381
Yards4,2071,568
Yards / Carry5.54.1
Yards / Game300.5112.0
Touchdowns4812
Passing
Attempts122402
Completions66253
Completion %54.1%62.9%
Yards1,1282,603
Yards / Attempt9.26.5
Touchdowns1016
Interceptions418
Passer Rating152.26121.51
Total Offense
Plays886783
Yards5,3354,171
Yards / Play6.05.3
Yards / Game381.1297.9
Punt Returns
Returns910
Yards3844
Average4.24.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1439
Yards154824
Average11.021.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2538
Yards1,0001,590
Average40.041.8
Interception Returns
Returns184
Yards17025
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1413
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties4564
Yards441567
Yards / Game31.540.5
Time of Possession
Per Game34:3924:21
Third Downs
Attempts169162
Conversions8267
Conversion %48.5%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4040
Conversions3117
Conversion %77.5%42.5%
Red Zone
Trips5540
Scores (TD + FG)5024
Score %90.9%60.0%
Touchdowns4218
TD %76.4%45.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1211
Made107
Pct83.3%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5524
Made5524
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →