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WASH
Washington
HuskiesBalancedBig Ten Conference9-4#31 (+9.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
77· BOverall
Offense
76· BRating
78· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
76· BPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
-0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.175
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.152
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#41
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#28
recruiting 3 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense78th
Offensive EPA/play79th
Defensive EPA/play77th
Offensive success rate92th
Explosiveness77th
Defensive havoc29th
Points per drive88th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate4312South Florida2025OA +0.113 / +0.103similar: pass defense, run defense, TD drive rate3693Army2024OA +0.072 / +0.032similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, passing offense3534Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense3515Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate341
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Colorado State | 38-21 | W | -21.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UC Davis | 70-10 | W | -27.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Washington State | 59-24 | W | -21.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Ohio State | 6-24 | L | +11.5 | L | 34.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Maryland | 24-20 | W | +12.5 | W | 41.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Rutgers | 38-19 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Michigan | 7-24 | L | +5.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 9 | vs Illinois | 42-25 | W | -7.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Wisconsin | 10-13 | L | -7.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Purdue | 49-13 | W | -14.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 13 | @ UCLA | 48-14 | W | -10.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 14 | vs Oregon | 14-26 | L | +15.5 | W | 41 | U |
| 16 | vs Boise State | 38-10 | W | -9.5 | W | 53 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.110 | 86th | -0.080 | 76th |
| Red Zone | +0.209 | 89th | -0.227 | 90th |
| Third Down | +0.441 | 96th | +0.079 | 48th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.092 | 81th | -0.080 | 72th |
| First Half | +0.034 | 61th | -0.126 | 87th |
| Second Half | +0.191 | 96th | -0.033 | 59th |
| Early Downs | +0.034 | 70th | -0.140 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | +0.184 | 87th | +0.064 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | +0.077 | 75th | -0.168 | 96th |
| Goal to Go | +0.150 | 71th | -0.070 | 57th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
409.9
Pts/Drive
2.91
3rd Down%
50.6%
3&Out%
12.1%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 443 | 243 |
| Points / Game | 34.1 | 18.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 292 | 231 |
| Rushing | 133 | 70 |
| Passing | 142 | 134 |
| Penalty | 17 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 466 | 398 |
| Yards | 2,151 | 1,301 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 165.5 | 100.1 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 448 |
| Completions | 255 | 269 |
| Completion % | 68.9% | 60.0% |
| Yards | 3,178 | 2,747 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.6 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 159.93 | 117.82 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 836 | 846 |
| Yards | 5,329 | 4,048 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 409.9 | 311.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 8 |
| Yards | 171 | 88 |
| Average | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 19 |
| Yards | 537 | 453 |
| Average | 22.4 | 23.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 34 | 44 |
| Yards | 1,364 | 1,883 |
| Average | 40.1 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 8 |
| Yards | 202 | 69 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 10 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 70 |
| Yards | 719 | 584 |
| Yards / Game | 55.3 | 44.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:35 | 30:26 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 154 | 178 |
| Conversions | 78 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 50.6% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 36 |
| Conversions | 11 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 34 |
| Score % | 92.6% | 79.1% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 21 |
| TD % | 75.9% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 22 |
| Made | 10 | 18 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 59 | 25 |
| Made | 59 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.