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CCU
Coastal Carolina
ChanticleersRun-HeavySun Belt Conference11-1#7 (+9.32)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
94· AOverall
Offense
97· A+Rating
91· A-Per play
94· AConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
77· BRating
73· BPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.192
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.0%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.243
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.33
own return game
Return Defense
+0.54
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#40
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 31 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense96th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play92th
Defensive EPA/play74th
Offensive success rate95th
Explosiveness91th
Defensive havoc81th
Points per drive96th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate4012Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3993Minnesota2019OA +0.177 / +0.011similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3834Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, havoc rate3825Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA374
2020 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | @ Kansas | 38-23 | W | +7.0 | W | 56 | O |
| 3 | vs Campbell | 43-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Arkansas State | 52-23 | W | +3.0 | W | 65 | O |
| 7 | @ Louisiana | 30-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Georgia Southern | 28-14 | W | -5.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Georgia State | 51-0 | W | -3.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 10 | vs South Alabama | 23-6 | W | -18.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 12 | vs App State | 34-23 | W | -5.0 | W | 48 | O |
| 13 | @ Texas State | 49-14 | W | -17.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 14 | vs BYU | 22-17 | W | +10.0 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 15 | @ Troy | 42-38 | W | -13.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 17 | vs Liberty | 34-37 | L | -6.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-3
72.7%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.178 | 92th | -0.040 | 71th |
| Red Zone | +0.151 | 80th | -0.086 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.260 | 80th | +0.327 | 11th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.177 | 92th | -0.034 | 70th |
| First Half | +0.243 | 94th | +0.001 | 55th |
| Second Half | +0.117 | 83th | -0.089 | 79th |
| Early Downs | +0.107 | 88th | -0.139 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | +0.351 | 97th | +0.045 | 51th |
| Standard Downs | +0.113 | 86th | -0.085 | 80th |
| Goal to Go | +0.139 | 61th | -0.056 | 65th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.7%Rush 64.3%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
449.8
Pts/Drive
3.37
3rd Down%
52.3%
3&Out%
9.1%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 12 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 446 | 243 |
| Points / Game | 37.2 | 20.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 279 | 223 |
| Rushing | 143 | 100 |
| Passing | 121 | 109 |
| Penalty | 15 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 518 | 404 |
| Yards | 2,620 | 1,772 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 218.3 | 147.7 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 287 | 366 |
| Completions | 191 | 222 |
| Completion % | 66.6% | 60.7% |
| Yards | 2,778 | 2,451 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.7 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 177.72 | 118.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 805 | 770 |
| Yards | 5,398 | 4,223 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 449.8 | 351.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 7 |
| Yards | 76 | 53 |
| Average | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 45 |
| Yards | 299 | 849 |
| Average | 14.9 | 18.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 35 | 38 |
| Yards | 1,410 | 1,591 |
| Average | 40.3 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 5 |
| Yards | 227 | 84 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 22 |
| Lost | 7 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 44 | 57 |
| Yards | 428 | 455 |
| Yards / Game | 35.7 | 37.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:50 | 26:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 149 | 150 |
| Conversions | 78 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 52.3% | 38.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 27 |
| Conversions | 13 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 76.5% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 60 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 53 | 31 |
| Score % | 88.3% | 86.1% |
| Touchdowns | 45 | 20 |
| TD % | 75.0% | 55.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 20 |
| Made | 11 | 15 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 53 | 23 |
| Made | 49 | 20 |
| Pct | 92.5% | 87.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 6 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.