Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference11-2#20 (+13.75)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
81· BPer play
89· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
61· CRating
66· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
91· A-3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.177
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
-0.038
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.2%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.135
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#46
model 26 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3832Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: run defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3603Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3584Oregon State2023OA +0.111 / +0.063similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3575App State2023OA +0.064 / -0.010similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense343

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota State28-21W+7.0W54O
2@ Fresno State38-35W-3.0P46O
3vs Georgia Southern35-32W-17.0L45O
5@ Purdue38-31W+2.0W57O
6vs Illinois40-17W-14.0W58U
7vs Nebraska34-7W-7.0W47U
8@ Rutgers42-7W-28.5W46O
9vs Maryland52-10W-14.0W59O
11vs Penn State31-26W+7.0W49O
12@ Iowa19-23L+3.0L44.5U
13@ Northwestern38-22W-16.5L41.5O
14vs Wisconsin17-38L+3.0L44.5O
19@ Auburn31-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off54thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off92thPass Def69thRush Def56thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10587th-0.02963th
Red Zone+0.18085th+0.17910th
Third Down+0.29892th+0.00354th
No Garbage Time+0.10584th-0.05169th
First Half+0.12785th-0.08575th
Second Half+0.08276th+0.03035th
Early Downs+0.00851th-0.04469th
Passing Downs+0.29996th-0.05969th
Standard Downs+0.01054th-0.01356th
Goal to Go+0.20281th+0.05237th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.6%Rush 63.4%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
432.0
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
48.4%
3&Out%
8.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points443293
Points / Game34.122.5
First Downs
Total294229
Rushing13592
Passing142119
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts560430
Yards2,3231,591
Yards / Carry4.13.7
Yards / Game178.7122.4
Touchdowns2518
Passing
Attempts323357
Completions212200
Completion %65.6%56.0%
Yards3,2932,395
Yards / Attempt10.26.7
Touchdowns3114
Interceptions814
Passer Rating177.99117.47
Total Offense
Plays883787
Yards5,6163,986
Yards / Play6.45.1
Yards / Game432.0306.6
Punt Returns
Returns116
Yards371
Average3.40.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1844
Yards344947
Average19.121.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4261
Yards1,6072,518
Average38.341.3
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards240151
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1719
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties5667
Yards502554
Yards / Game38.642.6
Time of Possession
Per Game33:4526:15
Third Downs
Attempts161165
Conversions7862
Conversion %48.4%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2018
Conversions1310
Conversion %65.0%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips5935
Scores (TD + FG)5332
Score %89.8%91.4%
Touchdowns4323
TD %72.9%65.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1515
Made1112
Pct73.3%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5731
Made5431
Pct94.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts26
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →