Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference9-4#26 (+11.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
78· BRating
86· BPer play
76· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
84· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.103
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.119
Defensive EPA/play
-0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.225
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.89

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
model 45 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington2025OA +0.037 / +0.079similar: run defense, pass defense, TD drive rate3692UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: pass defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3683South Alabama2023OA +0.039 / +0.075similar: run defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3624Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3395Arizona2023OA +0.091 / +0.078similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, run defense338

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State34-7W----
2@ Florida18-16W+13.5W49U
3@ Miami12-49L+22.5L56.5O
4vs South Carolina State63-14W-29.5W56.5O
6vs Charlotte54-26W+2.5W68O
7@ North Texas63-36W----
8vs Florida Atlantic48-13W-20.5W73U
9@ Memphis31-34L-6.0L58.5O
11vs UTSA55-23W----
12@ Navy38-41L-10.0L62.5O
13@ UAB48-18W-16.5W57.5O
14vs Rice52-3W-28.5W57.5U
17vs Old Dominion10-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off92thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off86thPass Def44thRush Def88thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11488th-0.07370th
Red Zone+0.22392th-0.35697th
Third Down+0.29286th+0.21716th
No Garbage Time+0.11286th-0.10081th
First Half+0.06773th-0.12384th
Second Half+0.16692th-0.02353th
Early Downs+0.09290th-0.17296th
Passing Downs+0.08576th-0.00044th
Standard Downs+0.12792th-0.11988th
Goal to Go+0.18676th-0.49296th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
488.7
Pts/Drive
2.89
3rd Down%
47.2%
3&Out%
15.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points526304
Points / Game40.523.4
First Downs
Total309295
Rushing140113
Passing137148
Penalty3234
Rushing
Attempts506500
Yards2,7571,868
Yards / Carry5.43.7
Yards / Game212.1143.7
Touchdowns2921
Passing
Attempts405479
Completions269295
Completion %66.4%61.6%
Yards3,5963,156
Yards / Attempt8.96.6
Touchdowns3315
Interceptions1114
Passer Rating162.46121.42
Total Offense
Plays911979
Yards6,3535,024
Yards / Play7.05.1
Yards / Game488.7386.5
Punt Returns
Returns258
Yards230173
Average9.221.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1614
Yards301269
Average18.819.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4666
Yards1,9402,776
Average42.242.1
Interception Returns
Returns1411
Yards293138
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1521
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties86111
Yards796917
Yards / Game61.270.5
Time of Possession
Per Game25:2434:36
Third Downs
Attempts180205
Conversions8582
Conversion %47.2%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2035
Conversions1221
Conversion %60.0%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4754
Scores (TD + FG)4439
Score %93.6%72.2%
Touchdowns3427
TD %72.3%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2419
Made1816
Pct75.0%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6330
Made6230
Pct98.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made25
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →