Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference10-3#16 (+7.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
89· BRating
89· BPer play
93· AConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
78· BPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.091
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.078
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.134
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.186
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.112
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.95

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#60
model 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
model 27 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2018OA +0.052 / +0.107similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3962Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3853App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3764Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, turnover rate3755Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: run defense, havoc rate, offensive success rate367

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Arizona38-3W-28.5W59.5U
2@ Mississippi State24-31L+9.0W60U
3vs UTEP31-10W-18.0W57U
4@ Stanford21-20W-12.5L61U
5vs Washington24-31L+19.0W67.5U
6@ USC41-43L+21.5W72O
7@ Washington State44-6W+8.0W59U
9vs Oregon State27-24W+3.5W56.5U
10vs UCLA27-10W+2.5W51U
11@ Colorado34-31W-10.5L54O
12vs Utah42-18W0.0W44.5O
13@ Arizona State59-23W-10.5W50O
18@ Oklahoma38-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
11-2
84.6%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS6-0
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS7-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off85thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off77thPass Def61thRush Def78thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11789th-0.05276th
Red Zone+0.03457th-0.24496th
Third Down+0.31877th+0.25829th
No Garbage Time+0.13389th-0.05580th
First Half+0.11881th-0.00054th
Second Half+0.11787th-0.10284th
Early Downs+0.06687th-0.07268th
Passing Downs+0.17879th+0.00461th
Standard Downs+0.09085th-0.08478th
Goal to Go+0.18482th-0.30587th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.8%Rush 46.2%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
448.0
Pts/Drive
2.95
3rd Down%
48.8%
3&Out%
10.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points450274
Points / Game34.621.1
First Downs
Total301255
Rushing10690
Passing173136
Penalty2229
Rushing
Attempts398422
Yards1,8161,537
Yards / Carry4.63.6
Yards / Game139.7118.2
Touchdowns1719
Passing
Attempts464433
Completions332258
Completion %71.6%59.6%
Yards4,0083,116
Yards / Attempt8.67.2
Touchdowns3615
Interceptions119
Passer Rating164.97127.31
Total Offense
Plays862855
Yards5,8244,653
Yards / Play6.85.4
Yards / Game448.0357.9
Punt Returns
Returns1311
Yards78145
Average6.013.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns129
Yards166130
Average13.814.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3956
Yards1,6062,383
Average41.242.6
Interception Returns
Returns911
Yards88143
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles721
Lost310
Penalties
Penalties8293
Yards689826
Yards / Game53.063.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:09
Third Downs
Attempts162176
Conversions7973
Conversion %48.8%41.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1520
Conversions106
Conversion %66.7%30.0%
Red Zone
Trips5750
Scores (TD + FG)5338
Score %93.0%76.0%
Touchdowns3828
TD %66.7%56.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2419
Made1911
Pct79.2%57.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5329
Made5329
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made24
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →