Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#6 (+23.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
81· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
86· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.117
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.130
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.084
Defensive EPA/play
-0.162
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.8%
Def Success Rate
40.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.245
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.160
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#15
model 9 spots higher
37 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
89th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
83th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2019OA +0.120 / +0.254similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate4252Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate4103Clemson2018OA +0.138 / +0.273similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, pass defense4094Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4045Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate398

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Akron52-0W-3.0W54.5O
2vs Pittsburgh33-14W-19.0P63.5U
3vs Georgia State56-0W-37.5W54O
4@ Iowa21-19W-13.0L53U
5vs Indiana45-14W-19.0W62U
6@ Northwestern31-7W-14.5W51U
8vs Michigan42-13W-7.5W42O
9@ Ohio State38-39L+7.0W56.5O
10@ Michigan State24-27L-9.5L46O
11vs Rutgers35-6W-31.0L57U
12vs Nebraska56-44W-27.0L58.5O
13@ Maryland66-3W-23.5W56O
18vs Washington35-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off71thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off94thPass Def86thRush Def71thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def62th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09187th-0.12278th
Red Zone+0.21390th-0.00651th
Third Down+0.28794th-0.07062th
No Garbage Time+0.07681th-0.15587th
First Half+0.06576th-0.17586th
Second Half+0.11989th-0.06665th
Early Downs+0.05177th-0.09071th
Passing Downs+0.19091th-0.17086th
Standard Downs+0.04471th-0.09071th
Goal to Go+0.13774th-0.27083th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.4%Rush 49.6%
Havoc/Game
17.1
Havoc Rate
23.9%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
460.3
Pts/Drive
2.97
3rd Down%
48.0%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points534214
Points / Game41.116.5
First Downs
Total296226
Rushing9987
Passing172122
Penalty2517
Rushing
Attempts451449
Yards2,2121,534
Yards / Carry4.93.4
Yards / Game170.2118.0
Touchdowns3614
Passing
Attempts458449
Completions301262
Completion %65.7%58.4%
Yards3,7722,749
Yards / Attempt8.26.1
Touchdowns3213
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating153.59114.88
Total Offense
Plays909898
Yards5,9844,283
Yards / Play6.64.8
Yards / Game460.3329.5
Punt Returns
Returns2717
Yards32973
Average12.24.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3153
Yards6711,034
Average21.619.5
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5488
Yards2,2893,553
Average42.440.4
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards11495
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles820
Lost315
Penalties
Penalties5480
Yards490751
Yards / Game37.757.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2129:39
Third Downs
Attempts171209
Conversions8273
Conversion %48.0%34.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1425
Conversions811
Conversion %57.1%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips5932
Scores (TD + FG)5327
Score %89.8%84.4%
Touchdowns4618
TD %78.0%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1713
Made910
Pct52.9%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7121
Made7120
Pct100.0%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →