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NAVY
Navy
MidshipmenRun-HeavyAmerican Conference10-3#25 (+6.03)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
81· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
94· APer play
51· CConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
72· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.059
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.149
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.215
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.055
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.90
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#47
model 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense93th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play95th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate30th
Explosiveness71th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive93th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Army2024OA +0.072 / +0.032similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3582Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, takeaway rate3133San Diego State2017OA +0.025 / +0.065similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3094Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3005Georgia Southern2018OA +0.015 / +0.044similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate299
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Bucknell | 49-21 | W | -33.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Temple | 38-11 | W | -13.0 | W | 44 | O |
| 4 | vs Memphis | 56-44 | W | +9.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 5 | @ UAB | 41-18 | W | -3.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Air Force | 34-7 | W | -9.5 | W | 37 | O |
| 8 | vs Charlotte | 51-17 | W | -17.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 9 | vs Notre Dame | 14-51 | L | +12.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 10 | @ Rice | 10-24 | L | -11.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 11 | @ South Florida | 28-7 | W | -3.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Tulane | 0-35 | L | +7.0 | L | 54 | U |
| 14 | @ East Carolina | 34-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | @ Army | 31-13 | W | +6.0 | W | 39.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Oklahoma | 21-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.087 | 83th | -0.032 | 63th |
| Red Zone | +0.413 | 99th | -0.171 | 81th |
| Third Down | +0.101 | 49th | +0.382 | 4th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.128 | 90th | -0.083 | 78th |
| First Half | +0.065 | 70th | -0.116 | 84th |
| Second Half | +0.111 | 84th | +0.052 | 29th |
| Early Downs | +0.099 | 91th | -0.091 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | +0.012 | 47th | +0.012 | 51th |
| Standard Downs | +0.125 | 90th | -0.054 | 67th |
| Goal to Go | +0.320 | 92th | -0.061 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 23.2%Rush 76.8%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
371.3
Pts/Drive
2.90
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
17.6%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Navy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 407 | 288 |
| Points / Game | 31.3 | 22.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 221 | 256 |
| Rushing | 148 | 116 |
| Passing | 62 | 119 |
| Penalty | 11 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 592 | 487 |
| Yards | 3,218 | 2,029 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 247.5 | 156.1 |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 405 |
| Completions | 99 | 240 |
| Completion % | 55.3% | 59.3% |
| Yards | 1,609 | 2,767 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 151.76 | 123.74 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 771 | 892 |
| Yards | 4,827 | 4,796 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 371.3 | 368.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 29 |
| Yards | 65 | 248 |
| Average | 4.6 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 44 |
| Yards | 454 | 801 |
| Average | 20.6 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 49 |
| Yards | 2,606 | 2,019 |
| Average | 45.7 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 6 |
| Yards | 329 | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 20 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 78 |
| Yards | 585 | 638 |
| Yards / Game | 45.0 | 49.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:06 | 29:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 189 |
| Conversions | 62 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 41.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 37 |
| Conversions | 15 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 62.5% | 48.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 30 |
| Score % | 88.1% | 69.8% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 23 |
| TD % | 81.0% | 53.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 15 |
| Made | 5 | 10 |
| Pct | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 31 |
| Made | 50 | 30 |
| Pct | 92.6% | 96.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 6 |
| Made | 2 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.