Fourth Down Data
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AF

Air Force

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference11-2#21 (+13.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
95· APer play
97· A+Consistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
70· BPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.120
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.181
Defensive EPA/play
-0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.3%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.235
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
76th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
71th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
85th
Defensive havoc
48th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Navy2019OA +0.142 / +0.034similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3462Army2024OA +0.072 / +0.032similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3143Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3104Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3075Texas2026OA +0.032 / -0.028similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate306

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colgate48-7W-3.0W73U
3@ Colorado30-23W+3.0W58U
4@ Boise State19-30L+7.5L53U
5vs San José State41-24W-19.5L58.5O
6@ Navy25-34L-3.0L46.5O
7vs Fresno State43-24W-2.5W50.5O
8@ Hawai'i56-26W-4.5W66.5O
9vs Utah State31-7W-4.0W58.5U
10vs Army17-13W-17.0L44.5U
12@ Colorado State38-21W-10.5W62.5U
13@ New Mexico44-22W-24.0L56.5O
14vs Wyoming20-6W-13.0W41U
18@ Washington State31-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off91thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off94thPass Def64thRush Def66thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16496th-0.03969th
Red Zone+0.16182th-0.36097th
Third Down+0.33294th+0.12628th
No Garbage Time+0.17396th-0.05370th
First Half+0.20797th+0.00351th
Second Half+0.12189th-0.08281th
Early Downs+0.08183th-0.03968th
Passing Downs+0.27293th-0.05264th
Standard Downs+0.12691th-0.03266th
Goal to Go+0.03456th-0.64395th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 14.3%Rush 85.7%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
421.8
Pts/Drive
3.33
3rd Down%
53.5%
3&Out%
10.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAir ForceOpponents
Scoring
Points443258
Points / Game34.119.8
First Downs
Total286216
Rushing22777
Passing52131
Penalty78
Rushing
Attempts755375
Yards3,8811,307
Yards / Carry5.13.5
Yards / Game298.5100.5
Touchdowns4111
Passing
Attempts126377
Completions68238
Completion %54.0%63.1%
Yards1,6022,848
Yards / Attempt12.77.6
Touchdowns1421
Interceptions67
Passer Rating187.91141.26
Total Offense
Plays881752
Yards5,4834,155
Yards / Play6.25.5
Yards / Game421.8319.6
Punt Returns
Returns57
Yards638
Average1.25.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns736
Yards93772
Average13.321.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3147
Yards1,2532,066
Average40.444.0
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards240161
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2423
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties4254
Yards368392
Yards / Game28.330.2
Time of Possession
Per Game34:2825:32
Third Downs
Attempts157158
Conversions8464
Conversion %53.5%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2128
Conversions1613
Conversion %76.2%46.4%
Red Zone
Trips5443
Scores (TD + FG)4831
Score %88.9%72.1%
Touchdowns3923
TD %72.2%53.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1312
Made139
Pct100.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5631
Made5227
Pct92.9%87.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →