Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#17 (+6.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
93· APer play
95· AConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
59· CPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
99· A+Red-zone D
82· B3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.110
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.155
Defensive EPA/play
-0.021
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.2%
Def Success Rate
41.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.035
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#23
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
model 44 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
68th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah2025OA +0.209 / +0.052similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4432Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4223Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3894Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3745South Carolina2026OA +0.069 / +0.042similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate374

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeast Missouri State45-0W-28.0W55.75U
2vs Troy42-13W-15.0W49.5O
3@ Missouri27-30L-3.5L47.5O
4vs UCF44-31W-4.0W52.5O
6@ Oklahoma State21-29L----
7@ Texas Tech38-21W+1.0W56.5O
8vs TCU41-3W-6.5W59U
9vs Houston41-0W-17.0W59.5U
10@ Texas30-33L+4.3W51O
11vs Baylor59-25W-20.5W55.5O
12@ Kansas31-27W-8.0L56.5O
13vs Iowa State35-42L-10.0L46.5O
18vs NC State28-19W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS7-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off91thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off83thPass Def87thRush Def67thRed Zone Def100th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12690th-0.06081th
Red Zone+0.26893th-0.453100th
Third Down+0.34183th+0.08873th
No Garbage Time+0.15595th-0.01858th
First Half+0.17992th+0.03539th
Second Half+0.06976th-0.16093th
Early Downs+0.05183th-0.06363th
Passing Downs+0.14976th-0.05887th
Standard Downs+0.11491th-0.06067th
Goal to Go+0.19384th+0.00750th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.4%Rush 55.6%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
445.2
Pts/Drive
3.04
3rd Down%
47.9%
3&Out%
19.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points482273
Points / Game37.121.0
First Downs
Total310225
Rushing14381
Passing145127
Penalty2217
Rushing
Attempts533403
Yards2,6531,917
Yards / Carry5.04.8
Yards / Game204.1147.5
Touchdowns3215
Passing
Attempts426438
Completions258247
Completion %60.6%56.4%
Yards3,1352,926
Yards / Attempt7.46.7
Touchdowns3016
Interceptions1013
Passer Rating140.92118.63
Total Offense
Plays959841
Yards5,7884,843
Yards / Play6.05.8
Yards / Game445.2372.5
Punt Returns
Returns169
Yards73171
Average4.619.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1939
Yards344746
Average18.119.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5358
Yards2,1502,376
Average40.641.0
Interception Returns
Returns1310
Yards13677
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles717
Lost210
Penalties
Penalties6372
Yards568651
Yards / Game43.750.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4128:07
Third Downs
Attempts188179
Conversions9054
Conversion %47.9%30.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2437
Conversions1417
Conversion %58.3%45.9%
Red Zone
Trips6533
Scores (TD + FG)5826
Score %89.2%78.8%
Touchdowns5113
TD %78.5%39.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1423
Made1118
Pct78.6%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5929
Made5727
Pct96.6%93.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →