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UTAH
Utah
UtesBalancedBig 12 Conference10-4#14 (+7.64)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
92· A-Per play
95· AConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
72· BPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.080
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.142
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.150
Defensive EPA/play
-0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.5%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.236
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.18
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.30
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#7
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
model 20 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense79th
Opp-adjusted defense93th
Offensive EPA/play93th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate98th
Explosiveness87th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive93th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3782Boise State2019OA +0.101 / +0.067similar: passing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3623UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3544Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive success rate3535Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA345
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida | 26-29 | L | -3.0 | L | 51.25 | O |
| 2 | vs Southern Utah | 73-7 | W | -45.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 3 | vs San Diego State | 35-7 | W | -21.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Arizona State | 34-13 | W | -15.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 5 | vs Oregon State | 42-16 | W | -10.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 6 | @ UCLA | 32-42 | L | -2.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | vs USC | 43-42 | W | -3.5 | L | 65 | O |
| 9 | @ Washington State | 21-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Arizona | 45-20 | W | -17.5 | W | 67 | U |
| 11 | vs Stanford | 42-7 | W | -24.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Oregon | 17-20 | L | +3.0 | P | 61.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Colorado | 63-21 | W | -30.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 14 | @ USC | 47-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Penn State | 21-35 | L | -1.3 | L | 53.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5-1
61.5%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WPWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.151 | 93th | -0.073 | 72th |
| Red Zone | +0.223 | 95th | +0.118 | 25th |
| Third Down | +0.583 | 99th | +0.082 | 42th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.156 | 94th | -0.097 | 79th |
| First Half | +0.157 | 91th | -0.084 | 73th |
| Second Half | +0.143 | 93th | -0.062 | 68th |
| Early Downs | +0.075 | 84th | -0.108 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | +0.281 | 97th | -0.023 | 53th |
| Standard Downs | +0.098 | 87th | -0.102 | 79th |
| Goal to Go | -0.000 | 57th | +0.043 | 39th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
23.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
466.9
Pts/Drive
3.18
3rd Down%
50.6%
3&Out%
11.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Utah | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 541 | 300 |
| Points / Game | 38.6 | 21.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 365 | 220 |
| Rushing | 175 | 82 |
| Passing | 156 | 124 |
| Penalty | 34 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 560 | 394 |
| Yards | 3,047 | 1,560 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 217.6 | 111.4 |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 446 | 413 |
| Completions | 288 | 253 |
| Completion % | 64.6% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 3,489 | 3,117 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 148.74 | 134.83 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,006 | 807 |
| Yards | 6,536 | 4,677 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 466.9 | 334.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 7 |
| Yards | 234 | 7 |
| Average | 7.3 | 1.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 61 |
| Yards | 144 | 1,300 |
| Average | 18.0 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 40 | 69 |
| Yards | 1,563 | 3,038 |
| Average | 39.1 | 44.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 295 | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 18 |
| Lost | 8 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 63 | 95 |
| Yards | 563 | 838 |
| Yards / Game | 40.2 | 59.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:40 | 26:20 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 180 | 165 |
| Conversions | 91 | 52 |
| Conversion % | 50.6% | 31.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 28 |
| Conversions | 18 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 62.1% | 39.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 73 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 61 | 38 |
| Score % | 83.6% | 88.4% |
| Touchdowns | 53 | 30 |
| TD % | 72.6% | 69.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 11 |
| Made | 10 | 10 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 90.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 70 | 36 |
| Made | 69 | 36 |
| Pct | 98.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.