Fourth Down Data
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USC

USC

TrojansPass-Heavy
Big Ten Conference5-1#24 (+6.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
82· BRating
65· CPer play
53· CConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
85· BPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.056
Defensive EPA/play
-0.083
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.139
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.36
own return game
Return Defense
+0.87
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#24
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate3752Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3413SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3214Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense3215Toledo2020OA +0.030 / +0.027similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate316

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs Arizona State28-27W-10.5L58U
11@ Arizona34-30W-14.3L67.5U
12@ Utah33-17W-2.5W57.5U
14vs Washington State38-13W-12.0W68.5U
15@ UCLA43-38W-3.5W64O
16vs Oregon24-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
1-5
16.7%
Straight Up
5-1
83.3%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off50thRed Zone Off34th3rd Down Off41thPass Def75thRush Def68thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def55th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03057th-0.04173th
Red Zone-0.06534th+0.2506th
Third Down+0.01241th+0.05855th
No Garbage Time+0.05565th-0.05477th
First Half-0.00347th-0.07082th
Second Half+0.06166th-0.01059th
Early Downs+0.02161th-0.03367th
Passing Downs+0.07758th-0.05875th
Standard Downs+0.00750th-0.03268th
Goal to Go+0.11859th+0.6642th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.0%Rush 41.0%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
416.7
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
12.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points200156
Points / Game33.326.0
First Downs
Total135126
Rushing3755
Passing8858
Penalty1013
Rushing
Attempts184217
Yards584920
Yards / Carry3.24.2
Yards / Game97.3153.3
Touchdowns84
Passing
Attempts265187
Completions178121
Completion %67.2%64.7%
Yards1,9161,298
Yards / Attempt7.26.9
Touchdowns1714
Interceptions79
Passer Rating143.79138.09
Total Offense
Plays449404
Yards2,5002,218
Yards / Play5.65.5
Yards / Game416.7369.7
Punt Returns
Returns105
Yards4361
Average4.312.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns136
Yards305102
Average23.517.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1823
Yards835991
Average46.443.1
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards13624
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles910
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties4031
Yards426296
Yards / Game71.049.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0629:54
Third Downs
Attempts8979
Conversions3931
Conversion %43.8%39.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1512
Conversions105
Conversion %66.7%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips3416
Scores (TD + FG)2715
Score %79.4%93.8%
Touchdowns2111
TD %61.8%68.8%
Field Goals
Attempts139
Made98
Pct69.2%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2319
Made2318
Pct100.0%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →