Fourth Down Data
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NEV

Nevada

Wolf PackBalanced
Mountain West Conference3-9#103 (-10.28)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
42· CRating
58· CPer play
40· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
22· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
+0.075
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.80
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
59th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4052Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3903Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3854Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3585Ball State2024OA -0.000 / -0.067similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive success rate357

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Northwestern20-31L+24.0W61U
2vs Toledo24-37L+10.5L69.5U
3vs Idaho State28-30L-34.5L--
4@ Washington State7-45L+28.5L65.5U
5@ Fresno State21-41L+7.5L59O
6vs Hawai'i35-21W+3.5W63U
7@ Colorado State42-44L+24.0W65.5O
8vs Air Force42-45L+6.0W64.5O
10@ Boise State14-41L+20.0L63U
11vs San José State59-14W-17.5W67O
12@ San Diego State23-42L+17.0L55.5O
13vs UNLV23-16W-3.5W70U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off46thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off73thPass Def8thRush Def51thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00357th+0.03532th
Red Zone-0.01449th-0.07262th
Third Down+0.11973th+0.10527th
No Garbage Time+0.01661th+0.07422th
First Half+0.00762th+0.10819th
Second Half-0.01351th-0.04458th
Early Downs-0.01260th-0.00135th
Passing Downs+0.08572th+0.1908th
Standard Downs-0.04846th-0.03451th
Goal to Go+0.18880th-0.11262th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.5%Rush 44.5%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
397.6
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
22.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNevadaOpponents
Scoring
Points338407
Points / Game28.233.9
First Downs
Total238299
Rushing84142
Passing126133
Penalty2824
Rushing
Attempts362565
Yards1,5262,499
Yards / Carry4.24.4
Yards / Game127.2208.3
Touchdowns1224
Passing
Attempts451359
Completions270240
Completion %59.9%66.9%
Yards3,2453,157
Yards / Attempt7.28.8
Touchdowns3024
Interceptions158
Passer Rating135.61158.33
Total Offense
Plays813924
Yards4,7715,656
Yards / Play5.96.1
Yards / Game397.6471.3
Punt Returns
Returns1310
Yards130165
Average10.016.5
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4127
Yards908625
Average22.123.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5545
Yards2,0761,860
Average37.741.3
Interception Returns
Returns815
Yards156123
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2024
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties5891
Yards519873
Yards / Game43.372.8
Time of Possession
Per Game25:4434:16
Third Downs
Attempts166174
Conversions6677
Conversion %39.8%44.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2822
Conversions1112
Conversion %39.3%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips4560
Scores (TD + FG)3749
Score %82.2%81.7%
Touchdowns3035
TD %66.7%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1123
Made817
Pct72.7%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4151
Made4050
Pct97.6%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →