Fourth Down Data
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BGSU

Bowling Green

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference4-8#103 (-9.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
11· FPer play
15· DConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
67· CPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.131
Defensive EPA/play
-0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
market 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
17th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
17th
Explosiveness
15th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3702Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3633Ball State2023OA -0.109 / -0.019similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3574Northwestern2019OA -0.147 / +0.092similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3545UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, passing offense347

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lafayette26-7W----
2@ Cincinnati20-34L+23.5W50.5O
3vs Liberty23-13W+2.0W37.5U
4@ Louisville17-40L+26.5W51O
5@ Ohio20-35L+7.5L50.5O
7vs Toledo28-23W+10.5W48O
8vs Central Michigan6-27L-3.5L43.5U
9@ Kent State21-24L-7.5L48U
10vs Buffalo3-28L-2.5L43.5U
11@ Eastern Michigan21-27L+2.5L50.5U
13vs Akron16-19L-35.5L54.5O
14@ Massachusetts45-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-6
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off4thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off29thPass Def68thRush Def81thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11611th-0.08479th
Red Zone-0.06936th+0.20310th
Third Down-0.03029th-0.10280th
No Garbage Time-0.13610th-0.05764th
First Half-0.13513th-0.04461th
Second Half-0.09615th-0.12289th
Early Downs-0.1407th-0.02453th
Passing Downs-0.05139th-0.07468th
Standard Downs-0.1554th-0.08981th
Goal to Go-0.17622th+0.16728th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.7%Rush 62.3%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
306.8
Pts/Drive
1.60
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBowling GreenOpponents
Scoring
Points246291
Points / Game20.524.3
First Downs
Total199213
Rushing10291
Passing8194
Penalty1628
Rushing
Attempts472411
Yards1,8661,697
Yards / Carry4.04.1
Yards / Game155.5141.4
Touchdowns1317
Passing
Attempts286321
Completions166189
Completion %58.0%58.9%
Yards1,8152,420
Yards / Attempt6.37.5
Touchdowns1315
Interceptions126
Passer Rating117.96133.89
Total Offense
Plays758732
Yards3,6814,117
Yards / Play4.95.6
Yards / Game306.8343.1
Punt Returns
Returns1910
Yards109195
Average5.719.5
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns3226
Yards836495
Average26.119.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6154
Yards2,4902,295
Average40.842.5
Interception Returns
Returns612
Yards4194
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles918
Lost210
Penalties
Penalties8072
Yards733605
Yards / Game61.150.4
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1228:29
Third Downs
Attempts169147
Conversions6251
Conversion %36.7%34.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1920
Conversions88
Conversion %42.1%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips3333
Scores (TD + FG)2831
Score %84.8%93.9%
Touchdowns1724
TD %51.5%72.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2219
Made1915
Pct86.4%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2734
Made2734
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →