Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#104 (-4.89)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
4· FPer play
5· FConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
66· CPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.174
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.1%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.129
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#112
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 51 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
6th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3902South Alabama2017OA -0.205 / -0.056similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3663Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3624Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, pass defense3535South Carolina2019OA -0.095 / +0.084similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate346

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Miami (OH)13-6W-3.0L39.75O
2vs Duke20-26L----
3vs Eastern Illinois31-7W-24.5L36.5O
4@ Washington5-24L+10.5L43U
6vs Indiana24-41L+13.5L41.5O
7@ Maryland37-10W----
8vs Wisconsin3-23L+7.0L41U
9@ Iowa14-40L+14.0L37.75O
10@ Purdue26-20W-1.0W46.5U
12vs Ohio State7-31L+28.5W44.5U
13@ Michigan6-50L+10.5L37O
14vs Illinois28-38L+7.5L44O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off22thRush Off1thRed Zone Off1th3rd Down Off7thPass Def43thRush Def78thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1872th-0.04872th
Red Zone-0.4651th-0.14776th
Third Down-0.2167th-0.18195th
No Garbage Time-0.1774th-0.04366th
First Half-0.1598th-0.00446th
Second Half-0.2161th-0.09184th
Early Downs-0.2152th-0.01443th
Passing Downs-0.08622th+0.03043th
Standard Downs-0.2491th-0.08278th
Goal to Go-0.5042th-0.08867th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.4%Rush 47.6%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
284.4
Pts/Drive
1.45
3rd Down%
32.9%
3&Out%
25.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points214316
Points / Game17.826.3
First Downs
Total192229
Rushing7689
Passing100130
Penalty1610
Rushing
Attempts355390
Yards1,1821,559
Yards / Carry3.34.0
Yards / Game98.5129.9
Touchdowns1222
Passing
Attempts391391
Completions210245
Completion %53.7%62.7%
Yards2,2312,782
Yards / Attempt5.77.1
Touchdowns715
Interceptions1110
Passer Rating101.92129.97
Total Offense
Plays746781
Yards3,4134,341
Yards / Play4.65.6
Yards / Game284.4361.8
Punt Returns
Returns1625
Yards243261
Average15.210.4
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2624
Yards583505
Average22.421.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5849
Yards2,4592,070
Average42.442.2
Interception Returns
Returns1011
Yards16898
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles159
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties5746
Yards459386
Yards / Game38.332.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3330:12
Third Downs
Attempts167156
Conversions5563
Conversion %32.9%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1820
Conversions99
Conversion %50.0%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips3850
Scores (TD + FG)2640
Score %68.4%80.0%
Touchdowns1527
TD %39.5%54.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2421
Made1715
Pct70.8%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2137
Made2137
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →