Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansBalanced
Mountain West Conference1-1#47 (+4.14)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
18· DPer play
14· FConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
43· CPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.007
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.158
Defensive EPA/play
-0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
14.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.127
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2023OA -0.060 / -0.007similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3812Hawai'i2026OA -0.078 / -0.040similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3773Purdue2019OA +0.028 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate3604Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3375Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive success rate335

2026 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ USC26-42L+38.5W61.5O
1@ Eastern Michigan27-21W+3.0W56U
2vs Cal Poly------
3vs Fresno State------
5@ Hawai'i------
6vs Wyoming------
7@ UTEP------
8@ Nevada------
9vs New Mexico------
10vs Northern Illinois------
11@ Air Force------
12vs UNLV------
13vs North Dakota State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS2-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off47thRed Zone Off42th3rd Down Off68thPass Def73thRush Def23thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04446th-0.02141th
Red Zone-0.04842th+0.25433th
Third Down+0.35768th-0.14754th
No Garbage Time-0.15819th-0.00840th
First Half-0.19519th+0.09725th
Second Half+0.24780th-0.16562th
Early Downs+0.11469th+0.03528th
Passing Downs+0.05652th-0.23873th
Standard Downs+0.03647th+0.07723th
Goal to Go+0.26345th+0.07067th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.9%Rush 45.1%
Havoc/Game
9.5
Havoc Rate
13.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
394.5
Pts/Drive
1.29
3rd Down%
37.0%
3&Out%
23.8%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points5363
Points / Game26.531.5
First Downs
Total3842
Rushing1218
Passing2322
Penalty32
Rushing
Attempts6065
Yards239271
Yards / Carry4.04.2
Yards / Game119.5135.5
Touchdowns15
Passing
Attempts7379
Completions4454
Completion %60.3%68.4%
Yards550515
Yards / Attempt7.56.5
Touchdowns53
Interceptions12
Passer Rating143.42130.58
Total Offense
Plays133144
Yards789786
Yards / Play5.95.5
Yards / Game394.5393.0
Punt Returns
Returns44
Yards1872
Average4.518.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns13
Yards2769
Average27.023.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1110
Yards465425
Average42.342.5
Interception Returns
Returns21
Yards68
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties149
Yards11569
Yards / Game57.534.5
Time of Possession
Per Game26:1933:42
Third Downs
Attempts2729
Conversions1012
Conversion %37.0%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts36
Conversions12
Conversion %33.3%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips58
Scores (TD + FG)47
Score %80.0%87.5%
Touchdowns37
TD %60.0%87.5%
Field Goals
Attempts30
Made30
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts49
Made49
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →