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UNLV
UNLV
RebelsRun-HeavyMountain West Conference1-1#77 (-0.24)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
44· COverall
Offense
27· DRating
37· DPer play
16· DConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
44· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.014
Defensive EPA/play
-0.039
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.0%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense51th
Offensive EPA/play37th
Defensive EPA/play45th
Offensive success rate17th
Explosiveness46th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive28th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense4112Florida Atlantic2024OA -0.028 / -0.007similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense3773California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3674Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, havoc rate3605South Florida2024OA -0.014 / +0.005similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA356
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Memphis | 21-27 | L | -4.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 1 | @ Hawai'i | 21-6 | W | -3.0 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | @ North Texas | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Akron | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs California | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs North Dakota State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Air Force | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Northern Illinois | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Wyoming | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ New Mexico | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ San José State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Nevada | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-1
50.0%
O/U Record
0-2
0.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.014 | 39th | -0.039 | 45th |
| Red Zone | +0.020 | 45th | -0.674 | 82th |
| Third Down | -0.236 | 25th | +0.051 | 37th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.014 | 36th | -0.039 | 44th |
| First Half | +0.052 | 51th | -0.201 | 65th |
| Second Half | -0.107 | 34th | +0.090 | 31th |
| Early Downs | +0.098 | 66th | -0.023 | 42th |
| Passing Downs | -0.164 | 28th | -0.046 | 49th |
| Standard Downs | +0.075 | 57th | -0.034 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | +0.246 | 41th | -0.371 | 78th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
412.0
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
20.0%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 2 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UNLV | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 42 | 33 |
| Points / Game | 21.0 | 16.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 41 | 40 |
| Rushing | 21 | 15 |
| Passing | 16 | 19 |
| Penalty | 4 | 6 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 84 | 67 |
| Yards | 417 | 313 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 208.5 | 156.5 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 56 | 69 |
| Completions | 33 | 32 |
| Completion % | 58.9% | 46.4% |
| Yards | 407 | 399 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 131.76 | 101.62 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 140 | 136 |
| Yards | 824 | 712 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 412.0 | 356.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 3 |
| Yards | 1 | 1 |
| Average | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 3 |
| Yards | 15 | 82 |
| Average | 15.0 | 27.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 12 | 12 |
| Yards | 532 | 518 |
| Average | 44.3 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 1 | 3 |
| Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 13 | 13 |
| Yards | 134 | 129 |
| Yards / Game | 67.0 | 64.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:32 | 28:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 31 |
| Conversions | 10 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 38.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 2 |
| Conversions | 2 | 1 |
| Conversion % | 28.6% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 6 | 6 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 4 | 4 |
| Score % | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 16.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 4 |
| Pct | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 3 |
| Made | 6 | 3 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.