Fourth Down Data
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Florida Atlantic

OwlsBalanced
American Conference3-9#121 (-7.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
13· FRating
27· DPer play
13· FConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
54· CPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.044
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#80
market 41 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3902UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense3773Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3704California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, pass defense3575South Florida2018OA -0.024 / -0.020similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA346

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan State10-16L----
2vs Army7-24L-2.5L44.5U
3vs Florida International38-20W-5.0W45O
4@ UConn14-48L+2.5L45.5O
5vs Wagner41-10W-31.5L49.5O
7vs North Texas37-41L+7.0W60O
8@ UTSA24-38L+3.5L54.5O
10vs South Florida21-44L+7.5L57O
11@ East Carolina14-49L----
12@ Temple15-18L+2.5L50.5U
13vs Charlotte27-39L+3.0L48.5O
14@ Tulsa63-16W-1.5W57O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off15thRed Zone Off9th3rd Down Off37thPass Def18thRush Def55thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02334th+0.03132th
Red Zone-0.2389th+0.00649th
Third Down+0.03237th+0.14637th
No Garbage Time-0.03431th-0.00450th
First Half+0.00449th-0.06868th
Second Half-0.05122th+0.1367th
Early Downs-0.06025th-0.04758th
Passing Downs+0.08770th+0.12518th
Standard Downs-0.08515th-0.02455th
Goal to Go-0.24615th+0.3065th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
397.6
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
34.8%
3&Out%
25.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points311363
Points / Game25.930.3
First Downs
Total234252
Rushing102112
Passing112117
Penalty2023
Rushing
Attempts458450
Yards2,2682,202
Yards / Carry5.04.9
Yards / Game189.0183.5
Touchdowns2418
Passing
Attempts350378
Completions205211
Completion %58.6%55.8%
Yards2,5032,798
Yards / Attempt7.27.4
Touchdowns1425
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating125.56134.00
Total Offense
Plays808828
Yards4,7715,000
Yards / Play5.96.0
Yards / Game397.6416.7
Punt Returns
Returns1421
Yards71106
Average5.15.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2111
Yards391277
Average18.625.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4944
Yards2,1101,949
Average43.144.3
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards25683
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1214
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties7972
Yards619630
Yards / Game51.652.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2329:36
Third Downs
Attempts158162
Conversions5560
Conversion %34.8%37.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3423
Conversions1615
Conversion %47.1%65.2%
Red Zone
Trips4244
Scores (TD + FG)3035
Score %71.4%79.5%
Touchdowns2325
TD %54.8%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1825
Made1018
Pct55.6%72.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3939
Made3939
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →