Fourth Down Data
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NEV

Nevada

Wolf PackRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference1-0#33 (+5.56)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
71· BRating
81· BPer play
74· BConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
66· CRating
53· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.268
Defensive EPA/play
-0.127
lower = better
Off Success Rate
55.2%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.395
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.89

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boise State2023OA +0.080 / -0.028similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3842Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive EPA3643Ohio2017OA +0.025 / -0.003similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense3584Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3575Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate353

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Kentucky49-14W+1.0W51.5O
2vs Montana State------
3@ Middle Tennessee------
4vs Air Force------
6@ UTEP------
7@ North Dakota State------
8vs San José State------
9@ UCLA------
10vs New Mexico------
11@ Northern Illinois------
12vs Hawai'i------
13@ UNLV------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off56thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off72thPass Def53thRush Def55thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.26188th-0.11056th
Red Zone+0.52784th-0.01744th
Third Down+0.41172th-0.21964th
No Garbage Time+0.26882th-0.12753th
First Half+0.30588th-0.01140th
Second Half+0.22276th-0.21868th
Early Downs+0.00041th-0.01841th
Passing Downs+0.71297th-0.08553th
Standard Downs+0.07456th-0.12555th
Goal to Go+0.41460th+1.8516th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 27.6%Rush 72.4%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
486.0
Pts/Drive
3.89
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
11.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNevadaOpponents
Scoring
Points4914
Points / Game49.014.0
First Downs
Total2023
Rushing1311
Passing610
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts4242
Yards323164
Yards / Carry7.73.9
Yards / Game323.0164.0
Touchdowns52
Passing
Attempts1640
Completions924
Completion %56.3%60.0%
Yards163203
Yards / Attempt10.25.1
Touchdowns20
Interceptions10
Passer Rating170.57102.63
Total Offense
Plays5882
Yards486367
Yards / Play8.44.5
Yards / Game486.0367.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards190
Average9.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns12
Yards3022
Average30.011.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts36
Yards144218
Average48.036.3
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards08
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties46
Yards4059
Yards / Game40.059.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2732:33
Third Downs
Attempts1017
Conversions56
Conversion %50.0%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts22
Conversions21
Conversion %100.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips53
Scores (TD + FG)52
Score %100.0%66.7%
Touchdowns52
TD %100.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts00
Made00
Pct——
PAT Kicking
Attempts72
Made72
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →