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UNM
New Mexico
LobosRun-HeavyMountain West Conference2-10#130 (-8.76)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
0· FRating
3· FPer play
3· FConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
70· BPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.235
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.285
Defensive EPA/play
-0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.8%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.205
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.95
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.26
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#118
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense0th
Opp-adjusted defense58th
Offensive EPA/play3th
Defensive EPA/play70th
Offensive success rate3th
Explosiveness2th
Defensive havoc54th
Points per drive3th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, pass defense3882Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3673Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: pass defense, rushing offense, run defense3644UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3625Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA360
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Maine | 41-0 | W | +17.0 | P | 43.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Boise State | 14-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs UTEP | 27-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 38 | U |
| 4 | @ LSU | 0-38 | L | +14.5 | W | 42 | O |
| 5 | @ UNLV | 20-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Wyoming | 14-27 | L | +3.5 | L | 37 | O |
| 7 | @ New Mexico State | 9-21 | L | -6.5 | L | 37.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Fresno State | 9-41 | L | +10.5 | L | 40.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Utah State | 10-27 | L | +15.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Air Force | 3-35 | L | +14.5 | L | 39.5 | O |
| 12 | vs San Diego State | 10-34 | L | +7.5 | L | 34.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Colorado State | 0-17 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.267 | 2th | -0.081 | 76th |
| Red Zone | -0.258 | 10th | -0.032 | 49th |
| Third Down | -0.434 | 3th | -0.151 | 90th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.283 | 3th | -0.072 | 69th |
| First Half | -0.170 | 10th | -0.130 | 84th |
| Second Half | -0.385 | 1th | -0.038 | 55th |
| Early Downs | -0.195 | 7th | -0.054 | 63th |
| Passing Downs | -0.290 | 4th | -0.297 | 96th |
| Standard Downs | -0.252 | 3th | +0.016 | 31th |
| Goal to Go | +0.389 | 95th | +0.143 | 22th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.7%Rush 63.3%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
8.9
Yards/Game
228.1
Pts/Drive
0.95
3rd Down%
22.0%
3&Out%
39.5%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | New Mexico | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 157 | 312 |
| Points / Game | 13.1 | 26.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 160 | 213 |
| Rushing | 92 | 99 |
| Passing | 49 | 92 |
| Penalty | 19 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 439 | 461 |
| Yards | 1,478 | 1,893 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 123.2 | 157.8 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 255 | 320 |
| Completions | 137 | 195 |
| Completion % | 53.7% | 60.9% |
| Yards | 1,259 | 2,433 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.9 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 92.02 | 134.65 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 694 | 781 |
| Yards | 2,737 | 4,326 |
| Yards / Play | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 228.1 | 360.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 27 |
| Yards | 110 | 189 |
| Average | 6.1 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 14 |
| Yards | 560 | 308 |
| Average | 21.5 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 82 | 59 |
| Yards | 3,578 | 2,555 |
| Average | 43.6 | 43.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 9 |
| Yards | 93 | 124 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 17 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 75 |
| Yards | 614 | 757 |
| Yards / Game | 51.2 | 63.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:02 | 30:58 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 159 | 167 |
| Conversions | 35 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 22.0% | 34.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 23 |
| Conversions | 4 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 28.6% | 69.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 28 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 22 | 27 |
| Score % | 78.6% | 93.1% |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 17 |
| TD % | 46.4% | 58.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 18 |
| Made | 13 | 15 |
| Pct | 61.9% | 83.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 37 |
| Made | 16 | 37 |
| Pct | 94.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.