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ECU
East Carolina
PiratesBalancedAmerican Conference3-9#124 (-10.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
7· FOverall
Offense
9· FRating
21· DPer play
6· FConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
21· DPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
3· FRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.160
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.088
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.2%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.162
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.73
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-2.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.34
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 47 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense5th
Opp-adjusted defense24th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play21th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc83th
Points per drive22th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4092Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive success rate3953Tulsa2024OA -0.064 / -0.038similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3434Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3315Duke2020OA -0.072 / -0.025similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA319
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs North Carolina A&T | 23-28 | L | -13.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 2 | vs North Carolina | 41-19 | W | +16.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 4 | @ South Florida | 13-20 | L | +20.5 | W | 67.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Old Dominion | 37-35 | W | -7.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Temple | 6-49 | L | +10.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Houston | 20-42 | L | +16.0 | L | 69.5 | U |
| 8 | vs UCF | 10-37 | L | +21.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Memphis | 41-59 | L | +11.0 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Tulane | 18-24 | L | +10.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 12 | vs UConn | 55-21 | W | -17.0 | W | 71.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Cincinnati | 6-56 | L | +15.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 14 | @ NC State | 3-58 | L | +24.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.097 | 15th | +0.048 | 27th |
| Red Zone | -0.268 | 5th | +0.360 | 3th |
| Third Down | -0.092 | 20th | +0.088 | 34th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.085 | 20th | +0.063 | 24th |
| First Half | -0.074 | 27th | +0.122 | 14th |
| Second Half | -0.121 | 9th | -0.039 | 67th |
| Early Downs | -0.169 | 6th | +0.007 | 39th |
| Passing Downs | -0.009 | 45th | +0.113 | 21th |
| Standard Downs | -0.158 | 7th | +0.009 | 42th |
| Goal to Go | -0.554 | 2th | +0.353 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 57.1%Rush 42.9%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
22.2%
TO Margin
-1.2
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
414.4
Pts/Drive
1.73
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
28.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | East Carolina | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 273 | 448 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 37.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 273 | 243 |
| Rushing | 91 | 96 |
| Passing | 150 | 130 |
| Penalty | 32 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 475 |
| Yards | 1,556 | 2,037 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 129.7 | 169.8 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 568 | 384 |
| Completions | 285 | 237 |
| Completion % | 50.2% | 61.7% |
| Yards | 3,417 | 3,241 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 31 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 105.89 | 156.65 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 995 | 859 |
| Yards | 4,973 | 5,278 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 414.4 | 439.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 23 |
| Yards | 104 | 246 |
| Average | 7.4 | 10.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 41 | 13 |
| Yards | 714 | 280 |
| Average | 17.4 | 21.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 84 | 80 |
| Yards | 3,321 | 3,413 |
| Average | 39.5 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 15 |
| Yards | 38 | 322 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 16 |
| Lost | 10 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 95 |
| Yards | 547 | 861 |
| Yards / Game | 45.6 | 71.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:22 | 29:38 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 221 | 185 |
| Conversions | 80 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 36.2% | 38.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 16 |
| Conversions | 13 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 54.2% | 56.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 41 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 95.3% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 33 |
| TD % | 54.1% | 76.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 14 |
| Made | 19 | 14 |
| Pct | 90.5% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 57 |
| Made | 28 | 56 |
| Pct | 96.6% | 98.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.