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AUB
Auburn
TigersRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference6-7#55 (+1.64)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
59· COverall
Offense
30· DRating
30· DPer play
62· CConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
51· CPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.094
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.042
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.044
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.81
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#39
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 40 spots higher
37 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense15th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play30th
Defensive EPA/play52th
Offensive success rate70th
Explosiveness21th
Defensive havoc73th
Points per drive42th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3762Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3663Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3624Kentucky2018OA +0.003 / +0.108similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3615California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA358
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Massachusetts | 59-14 | W | -35.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 2 | @ California | 14-10 | W | -7.0 | L | 53 | U |
| 3 | vs Samford | 45-13 | W | -37.0 | L | 60.75 | U |
| 4 | @ Texas A&M | 10-27 | L | +8.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Georgia | 20-27 | L | +14.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 7 | @ LSU | 18-48 | L | +11.0 | L | 60 | O |
| 8 | vs Ole Miss | 21-28 | L | +6.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Mississippi State | 27-13 | W | -6.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Vanderbilt | 31-15 | W | -12.5 | W | 49.25 | U |
| 11 | @ Arkansas | 48-10 | W | +3.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 12 | vs New Mexico State | 10-31 | L | -23.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Alabama | 24-27 | L | +14.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 18 | @ Maryland | 13-31 | L | -7.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.027 | 36th | -0.002 | 52th |
| Red Zone | +0.048 | 60th | -0.078 | 64th |
| Third Down | +0.117 | 34th | +0.109 | 67th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.040 | 32th | -0.001 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.016 | 40th | -0.072 | 81th |
| Second Half | -0.039 | 37th | +0.071 | 27th |
| Early Downs | +0.017 | 73th | -0.108 | 82th |
| Passing Downs | -0.160 | 7th | +0.085 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | +0.041 | 72th | -0.053 | 64th |
| Goal to Go | -0.104 | 27th | +0.243 | 21th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.2%Rush 61.8%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
351.2
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
32.9%
3&Out%
27.4%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 340 | 294 |
| Points / Game | 26.2 | 22.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 223 |
| Rushing | 131 | 107 |
| Passing | 88 | 105 |
| Penalty | 22 | 11 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 513 | 463 |
| Yards | 2,457 | 2,015 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 189.0 | 155.0 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 317 | 359 |
| Completions | 189 | 212 |
| Completion % | 59.6% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 2,109 | 2,628 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 126.04 | 131.32 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 830 | 822 |
| Yards | 4,566 | 4,643 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 351.2 | 357.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 14 |
| Yards | 250 | 74 |
| Average | 10.0 | 5.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 17 |
| Yards | 708 | 381 |
| Average | 21.5 | 22.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,720 | 2,495 |
| Average | 44.6 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 13 |
| Yards | 179 | 134 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 16 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 91 |
| Yards | 570 | 778 |
| Yards / Game | 43.8 | 59.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:09 | 30:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 164 | 164 |
| Conversions | 54 | 52 |
| Conversion % | 32.9% | 31.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 27 |
| Conversions | 13 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 35 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 79.5% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 24 |
| TD % | 64.3% | 54.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 20 |
| Made | 13 | 14 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 35 |
| Made | 41 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.