← All Teams
UK
Kentucky
WildcatsRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference10-3#33 (+4.85)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
75· BOverall
Offense
36· DRating
28· DPer play
68· CConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
82· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.108
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.099
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.058
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.21
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 21 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
model & recruiting agree
11 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense46th
Opp-adjusted defense86th
Offensive EPA/play28th
Defensive EPA/play83th
Offensive success rate74th
Explosiveness57th
Defensive havoc94th
Points per drive29th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Auburn2023OA -0.094 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3612UCLA2023OA +0.005 / +0.188similar: havoc rate, passing offense, rushing offense3483Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3334Nebraska2024OA +0.001 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, passing offense3315Old Dominion2026OA -0.079 / +0.013similar: run defense, havoc rate, passing offense331
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Central Michigan | 35-20 | W | +4.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Florida | 27-16 | W | +13.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Murray State | 48-10 | W | -41.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Mississippi State | 28-7 | W | +9.5 | W | 56 | U |
| 5 | vs South Carolina | 24-10 | W | - | - | 52 | U |
| 6 | @ Texas A&M | 14-20 | L | +5.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Vanderbilt | 14-7 | W | -10.5 | L | 45 | U |
| 9 | @ Missouri | 15-14 | W | +7.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Georgia | 17-34 | L | +9.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Tennessee | 7-24 | L | -5.0 | L | 43 | U |
| 12 | vs Middle Tennessee | 34-23 | W | -16.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Louisville | 56-10 | W | -17.0 | W | 53 | O |
| 19 | @ Penn State | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.011 | 44th | -0.105 | 85th |
| Red Zone | -0.167 | 13th | -0.174 | 86th |
| Third Down | +0.073 | 55th | +0.064 | 39th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.043 | 28th | -0.099 | 82th |
| First Half | -0.078 | 26th | -0.056 | 66th |
| Second Half | +0.055 | 70th | -0.154 | 95th |
| Early Downs | -0.052 | 27th | -0.151 | 96th |
| Passing Downs | +0.026 | 59th | -0.009 | 55th |
| Standard Downs | -0.027 | 37th | -0.161 | 95th |
| Goal to Go | +0.018 | 42th | -0.076 | 72th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.6%Rush 64.4%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
360.8
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
24.1%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 346 | 219 |
| Points / Game | 26.6 | 16.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 258 | 226 |
| Rushing | 139 | 104 |
| Passing | 96 | 101 |
| Penalty | 23 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 536 | 462 |
| Yards | 2,592 | 1,971 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 199.4 | 151.6 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 296 | 376 |
| Completions | 194 | 216 |
| Completion % | 65.5% | 57.4% |
| Yards | 2,099 | 2,422 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 133.96 | 119.06 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 832 | 838 |
| Yards | 4,691 | 4,393 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 360.8 | 337.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 20 |
| Yards | 198 | 236 |
| Average | 13.2 | 11.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 23 |
| Yards | 539 | 419 |
| Average | 20.7 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 70 |
| Yards | 2,687 | 3,084 |
| Average | 44.8 | 44.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 10 |
| Yards | 204 | 57 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 23 |
| Lost | 8 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 101 |
| Yards | 721 | 858 |
| Yards / Game | 55.5 | 66.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:40 | 29:20 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 186 |
| Conversions | 64 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 19 |
| Conversions | 9 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 36.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 30 |
| Score % | 81.6% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 19 |
| TD % | 57.9% | 47.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 18 |
| Made | 9 | 11 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 61.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 25 |
| Made | 43 | 24 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.