Fourth Down Data
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UK

Kentucky

WildcatsBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-6#73 (-0.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
35· DPer play
29· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
69· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.30
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#54
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#21
recruiting 52 spots higher
23 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
30th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3602Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3593Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3574New Mexico State2022OA -0.054 / -0.076similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3475Bowling Green2023OA -0.057 / +0.051similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate328

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ball State44-14W-26.5W49O
2vs Eastern Kentucky28-17W----
3vs Akron35-3W-26.0W49.5U
4@ Vanderbilt45-28W-13.5W50O
5vs Florida33-14W-1.0W45O
6@ Georgia13-51L+14.5L47.75O
7vs Missouri21-38L-2.5L52.5O
9vs Tennessee27-33L+3.5L51.5O
10@ Mississippi State24-3W-3.5W46U
11vs Alabama21-49L+10.5L48O
12@ South Carolina14-17L-1.5L54U
13@ Louisville38-31W+7.0W50.5O
18vs Clemson35-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off62thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off19thPass Def68thRush Def61thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00247th-0.03467th
Red Zone-0.00649th-0.00349th
Third Down+0.01319th+0.08373th
No Garbage Time-0.00743th-0.04773th
First Half-0.02638th-0.05876th
Second Half+0.03566th-0.01252th
Early Downs+0.01168th-0.08877th
Passing Downs-0.02230th-0.01068th
Standard Downs+0.01662th-0.04761th
Goal to Go+0.06960th-0.08162th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.5%Rush 47.5%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
339.5
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points378336
Points / Game29.125.8
First Downs
Total221265
Rushing7498
Passing122148
Penalty2519
Rushing
Attempts339450
Yards1,6621,470
Yards / Carry4.93.3
Yards / Game127.8113.1
Touchdowns1819
Passing
Attempts375430
Completions211291
Completion %56.3%67.7%
Yards2,7513,126
Yards / Attempt7.37.3
Touchdowns2520
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating133.49138.97
Total Offense
Plays714880
Yards4,4134,596
Yards / Play6.25.2
Yards / Game339.5353.5
Punt Returns
Returns810
Yards7365
Average9.16.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2323
Yards693562
Average30.124.4
Touchdowns30
Punting
Punts5757
Yards2,2222,490
Average39.043.7
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards18137
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1612
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties7985
Yards661762
Yards / Game50.858.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3732:23
Third Downs
Attempts137185
Conversions5280
Conversion %38.0%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1018
Conversions211
Conversion %20.0%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips4247
Scores (TD + FG)3443
Score %81.0%91.5%
Touchdowns2929
TD %69.0%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1125
Made1020
Pct90.9%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4934
Made4834
Pct98.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →