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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsBalancedMid-American Conference7-6#63 (+0.79)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
54· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
34· DPer play
39· DConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
84· BPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.028
Defensive EPA/play
-0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#102
model 39 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 13 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense25th
Opp-adjusted defense75th
Offensive EPA/play34th
Defensive EPA/play85th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness63th
Defensive havoc73th
Points per drive58th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2026OA -0.079 / +0.013similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3632Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3523Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3514Temple2026OA -0.015 / -0.007similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3445Washington State2021OA -0.072 / +0.113similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate340
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Liberty | 24-34 | L | +9.5 | L | 50 | O |
| 2 | vs Eastern Illinois | 38-15 | W | -19.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Michigan | 6-31 | L | +40.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Ohio | 7-38 | L | +13.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Georgia Tech | 38-27 | W | +22.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Miami (OH) | 0-27 | L | +10.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 7 | @ Buffalo | 24-14 | W | +4.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Akron | 41-14 | W | -7.5 | W | 39.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Ball State | 24-21 | W | -9.5 | W | 41 | O |
| 11 | @ Kent State | 49-19 | W | +10.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Toledo | 31-32 | L | -2.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Western Michigan | 34-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @ Minnesota | 24-30 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.040 | 28th | -0.088 | 90th |
| Red Zone | +0.059 | 62th | +0.123 | 23th |
| Third Down | +0.048 | 21th | +0.138 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.040 | 33th | -0.092 | 90th |
| First Half | -0.053 | 28th | -0.141 | 93th |
| Second Half | -0.028 | 39th | -0.035 | 61th |
| Early Downs | -0.083 | 29th | -0.202 | 96th |
| Passing Downs | +0.008 | 36th | +0.022 | 55th |
| Standard Downs | -0.070 | 24th | -0.147 | 93th |
| Goal to Go | +0.098 | 66th | +0.027 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
326.3
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
19.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 340 | 312 |
| Points / Game | 26.2 | 24.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 217 | 246 |
| Rushing | 102 | 122 |
| Passing | 100 | 104 |
| Penalty | 15 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 429 | 469 |
| Yards | 1,788 | 1,901 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 137.5 | 146.2 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 357 | 340 |
| Completions | 213 | 202 |
| Completion % | 59.7% | 59.4% |
| Yards | 2,454 | 2,338 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 125.28 | 127.56 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 786 | 809 |
| Yards | 4,242 | 4,239 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 326.3 | 326.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 14 |
| Yards | 128 | 114 |
| Average | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 46 |
| Yards | 462 | 886 |
| Average | 20.1 | 19.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 50 | 42 |
| Yards | 1,955 | 1,658 |
| Average | 39.1 | 39.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 14 |
| Yards | 282 | 149 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 16 |
| Lost | 5 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 90 | 68 |
| Yards | 792 | 509 |
| Yards / Game | 60.9 | 39.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:27 | 29:33 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 156 | 154 |
| Conversions | 52 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 38.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 31 |
| Conversions | 15 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 48.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 32 |
| Score % | 87.2% | 84.2% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 25 |
| TD % | 63.8% | 65.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 13 | 12 |
| Pct | 72.2% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 35 |
| Made | 43 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.