Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference6-4#55 (+1.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
58· CPer play
46· CConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
77· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.038
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.097
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.125
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.99
own return game
Return Defense
+0.60
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#65
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, run defense3652Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3533Virginia Tech2019OA +0.028 / +0.016similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3504Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3455Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate340

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
3vs Louisiana31-34L+15.5W57.25O
5vs East Carolina49-29W-2.5W69.5O
7@ Arkansas State52-59L----
8@ Troy36-34W+2.5W68.5O
9vs Coastal Carolina0-51L+3.0L60U
10vs UL Monroe52-34W-18.0P58.5O
11@ App State13-17L+16.0W63.5U
12@ South Alabama31-14W-3.5W58.5U
13vs Georgia Southern30-24W+1.5W52.5O
17vs Western Kentucky39-21W-4.5W52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-2-1
77.8%
O/U Record
7-3
70.0%
Straight Up
6-4
60.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
PWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off34thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off61thPass Def56thRush Def64thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00951th-0.00260th
Red Zone+0.06365th+0.02941th
Third Down+0.13661th+0.08448th
No Garbage Time+0.03757th-0.04973th
First Half-0.00445th-0.02463th
Second Half+0.02652th+0.01753th
Early Downs-0.08220th-0.02866th
Passing Downs+0.10564th+0.02756th
Standard Downs-0.04034th-0.01864th
Goal to Go+0.21475th+0.16432th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.9%Rush 59.1%
Havoc/Game
17.7
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
424.3
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points333317
Points / Game33.331.7
First Downs
Total207217
Rushing9172
Passing100125
Penalty1620
Rushing
Attempts443354
Yards1,9401,366
Yards / Carry4.43.9
Yards / Game194.0136.6
Touchdowns2218
Passing
Attempts307377
Completions179236
Completion %58.3%62.6%
Yards2,3032,737
Yards / Attempt7.57.3
Touchdowns1821
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating134.15135.60
Total Offense
Plays750731
Yards4,2434,103
Yards / Play5.75.6
Yards / Game424.3410.3
Punt Returns
Returns618
Yards2893
Average4.75.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1040
Yards169772
Average16.919.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5245
Yards2,0461,939
Average39.343.1
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards112107
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2216
Lost109
Penalties
Penalties5549
Yards587474
Yards / Game58.747.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5231:08
Third Downs
Attempts165138
Conversions7551
Conversion %45.5%37.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1426
Conversions913
Conversion %64.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4341
Scores (TD + FG)4034
Score %93.0%82.9%
Touchdowns2829
TD %65.1%70.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1711
Made147
Pct82.4%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3941
Made3738
Pct94.9%92.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →