Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#35 (+7.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
50· CPer play
45· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
69· CPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.012
Defensive EPA/play
-0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
40.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.066
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
recruiting 5 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2020OA +0.011 / +0.030similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3502NC State2024OA +0.002 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3463Miami (OH)2017OA -0.001 / -0.011similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3424Iowa2017OA -0.004 / +0.093similar: havoc rate, run defense, TD drive rate3405Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA329

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Boston College28-35L-2.0L47O
2vs Old Dominion31-17W-30.0L57.5U
3vs Furman24-17W-24.0L64.5U
5vs Duke10-45L-2.5L51.5O
6@ Miami42-35W+14.0W46O
7vs Rhode Island34-17W-28.0L65.5U
8vs North Carolina43-41W+4.5W57.5O
10@ Notre Dame20-21L+17.0W59U
11vs Wake Forest36-17W+3.0W61U
12@ Georgia Tech45-0W-6.0W51U
13vs Pittsburgh28-0W-4.0W43.5U
14@ Virginia30-39L-3.0L48O
19@ Kentucky30-37L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off56thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off40thPass Def25thRush Def95thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00750th-0.05872th
Red Zone+0.11675th-0.17079th
Third Down-0.01240th+0.01951th
No Garbage Time+0.01051th-0.06473th
First Half-0.02043th-0.12986th
Second Half+0.03860th+0.00157th
Early Downs+0.01454th-0.13192th
Passing Downs-0.00345th+0.10825th
Standard Downs+0.01356th-0.15995th
Goal to Go-0.13935th-0.41892th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.0%Rush 64.0%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
385.2
Pts/Drive
2.32
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
26.0%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points401321
Points / Game30.824.7
First Downs
Total259234
Rushing12592
Passing108117
Penalty2625
Rushing
Attempts565457
Yards2,2891,811
Yards / Carry4.14.0
Yards / Game176.1139.3
Touchdowns2218
Passing
Attempts318441
Completions185238
Completion %58.2%54.0%
Yards2,7182,912
Yards / Attempt8.56.6
Touchdowns2421
Interceptions814
Passer Rating149.85118.80
Total Offense
Plays883898
Yards5,0074,723
Yards / Play5.75.3
Yards / Game385.2363.3
Punt Returns
Returns2518
Yards242155
Average9.78.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2819
Yards540346
Average19.318.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6172
Yards2,8213,105
Average46.243.1
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards886
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2113
Lost155
Penalties
Penalties6993
Yards606740
Yards / Game46.656.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4929:11
Third Downs
Attempts179205
Conversions6976
Conversion %38.5%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1330
Conversions917
Conversion %69.2%56.7%
Red Zone
Trips5542
Scores (TD + FG)5231
Score %94.5%73.8%
Touchdowns3723
TD %67.3%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2316
Made1912
Pct82.6%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4837
Made4835
Pct100.0%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts35
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →