Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#83 (-1.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
59· CRating
41· CPer play
66· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
46· CPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
+0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.31

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#60
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 48 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
46th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas Tech2026OA -0.030 / -0.019similar: offensive EPA, run defense, pass defense3762Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3653Miami (OH)2017OA -0.001 / -0.011similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3494Virginia Tech2019OA +0.028 / +0.016similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3465East Carolina2021OA +0.052 / -0.024similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate346

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Carolina38-21W----
2vs Tennessee10-51L+7.0L60O
3vs Louisiana Tech30-20W-21.5L49O
4@ Clemson35-59L+19.0L44O
5vs Northern Illinois24-17W-6.5W46.5U
6vs Wake Forest30-34L-5.5L53.5O
7vs Syracuse17-24L+4.5L54.5U
8@ California24-23W+10.0W46.5O
10vs Stanford59-28W-9.5W46.5O
11vs Duke19-29L-3.0L53U
13@ Georgia Tech29-30L----
14@ North Carolina35-30W-3.5W55.5O
18vs East Carolina21-26L-6.0L58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-7
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off30thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off24thPass Def71thRush Def43thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00940th-0.01858th
Red Zone-0.02245th-0.18986th
Third Down-0.01824th+0.17928th
No Garbage Time-0.01638th+0.00146th
First Half-0.10718th+0.00343th
Second Half+0.09379th-0.03866th
Early Downs-0.04732th-0.00740th
Passing Downs+0.06557th-0.07771th
Standard Downs-0.04330th+0.01643th
Goal to Go+0.23782th+0.04841th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
377.8
Pts/Drive
2.31
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points371392
Points / Game28.530.2
First Downs
Total262253
Rushing95100
Passing137133
Penalty3020
Rushing
Attempts421421
Yards1,8872,041
Yards / Carry4.54.8
Yards / Game145.2157.0
Touchdowns2125
Passing
Attempts391426
Completions255261
Completion %65.2%61.3%
Yards3,0243,040
Yards / Attempt7.77.1
Touchdowns2119
Interceptions1310
Passer Rating141.26131.23
Total Offense
Plays812847
Yards4,9115,081
Yards / Play6.06.0
Yards / Game377.8390.8
Punt Returns
Returns1011
Yards82113
Average8.210.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2210
Yards581218
Average26.421.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4848
Yards2,0682,018
Average43.142.0
Interception Returns
Returns1013
Yards166337
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1918
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties6680
Yards621717
Yards / Game47.855.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4528:15
Third Downs
Attempts155172
Conversions5865
Conversion %37.4%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2022
Conversions1112
Conversion %55.0%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips5450
Scores (TD + FG)4640
Score %85.2%80.0%
Touchdowns3127
TD %57.4%54.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2627
Made1921
Pct73.1%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4346
Made4245
Pct97.7%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →