Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksBalanced
Mid-American Conference5-7#77 (-1.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
45· CPer play
59· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
63· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.032
Defensive EPA/play
-0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.038
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
recruiting 11 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
52th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2021OA -0.024 / +0.004similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3832NC State2024OA +0.002 / -0.008similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3493Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3424Virginia Tech2019OA +0.028 / +0.016similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3425Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, pass defense, defensive EPA339

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Marshall26-31L-3.5L48O
2vs Austin Peay31-10W-35.0L--
3vs Cincinnati17-21L-3.5L49U
4@ Central Michigan31-14W+1.5W51U
5@ Notre Dame17-52L+21.0L53.5O
6vs Bowling Green29-37L-17.0L50.5O
7@ Kent State14-17L-8.5L42.5U
8vs Buffalo24-14W-3.0W47.5U
10@ Ohio28-45L+6.5L54O
11vs Akron24-14W-11.0L51U
12vs Eastern Michigan24-27L-1.5L51P
13@ Ball State28-7W-17.0W53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
4-6-1
40.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off66thRush Off23thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off33thPass Def76thRush Def50thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04340th-0.06462th
Red Zone+0.03659th-0.33994th
Third Down-0.11133th-0.10165th
No Garbage Time-0.02446th-0.06561th
First Half+0.10384th-0.04953th
Second Half-0.1958th-0.08069th
Early Downs-0.07733th-0.03357th
Passing Downs+0.06066th-0.12276th
Standard Downs-0.09823th-0.03350th
Goal to Go-0.02048th-0.46395th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
384.6
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
23.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points293289
Points / Game24.424.1
First Downs
Total248225
Rushing8897
Passing13598
Penalty2530
Rushing
Attempts444449
Yards1,7632,001
Yards / Carry4.04.5
Yards / Game146.9166.8
Touchdowns1213
Passing
Attempts387365
Completions211192
Completion %54.5%52.6%
Yards2,8522,410
Yards / Attempt7.46.6
Touchdowns2419
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating131.21119.22
Total Offense
Plays831814
Yards4,6154,411
Yards / Play5.65.4
Yards / Game384.6367.6
Punt Returns
Returns612
Yards3715
Average6.21.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4030
Yards708655
Average17.721.8
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts6459
Yards2,5952,341
Average40.539.7
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards161209
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles910
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties8668
Yards781662
Yards / Game65.155.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2628:35
Third Downs
Attempts168178
Conversions6369
Conversion %37.5%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1825
Conversions910
Conversion %50.0%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4035
Scores (TD + FG)3426
Score %85.0%74.3%
Touchdowns2617
TD %65.0%48.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1620
Made1210
Pct75.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3635
Made3535
Pct97.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →