Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#32 (+4.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
66· CPer play
72· BConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
52· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.054
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.098
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#26
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#13
recruiting 19 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2024OA +0.027 / -0.004similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3822NC State2024OA +0.002 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3653USC2017OA +0.017 / +0.044similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3594Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3565App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, passing offense355

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Miami (OH)38-3W----
2vs Texas A&M48-33W+7.0W--
3vs Bethune-Cookman48-7W----
4@ Temple41-7W-23.5W47.25O
6vs Georgia Tech20-23L-21.0L57.5U
7@ North Carolina31-41L+3.5L57O
8vs Clemson28-20W+3.5W48.5U
9vs Virginia29-26W-19.0L47.5O
10@ NC State6-20L-4.0L45U
11@ Florida State20-27L+14.5W50U
12vs Louisville31-38L-8.5W47.5O
13@ Boston College45-20W----
18vs Rutgers24-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off67thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off31thPass Def44thRush Def53thRed Zone Def40th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05567th+0.00150th
Red Zone-0.08629th+0.03440th
Third Down+0.09831th+0.18047th
No Garbage Time+0.04763th+0.00451th
First Half+0.11379th-0.04171th
Second Half-0.00246th+0.04634th
Early Downs-0.00263th-0.06161th
Passing Downs+0.10465th+0.04744th
Standard Downs+0.02967th-0.02553th
Goal to Go+0.03552th+0.10638th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
431.2
Pts/Drive
2.54
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points409296
Points / Game31.522.8
First Downs
Total286223
Rushing11282
Passing150116
Penalty2425
Rushing
Attempts440412
Yards2,2511,373
Yards / Carry5.13.3
Yards / Game173.2105.6
Touchdowns2418
Passing
Attempts436396
Completions283225
Completion %64.9%56.8%
Yards3,3542,808
Yards / Attempt7.77.1
Touchdowns2316
Interceptions1412
Passer Rating140.51123.65
Total Offense
Plays876808
Yards5,6054,181
Yards / Play6.45.2
Yards / Game431.2321.6
Punt Returns
Returns1211
Yards7995
Average6.68.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3316
Yards791344
Average24.021.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4566
Yards1,8822,865
Average41.843.4
Interception Returns
Returns1214
Yards118168
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1314
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties7977
Yards751649
Yards / Game57.849.9
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3928:21
Third Downs
Attempts163176
Conversions6763
Conversion %41.1%35.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2114
Conversions116
Conversion %52.4%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips5248
Scores (TD + FG)4442
Score %84.6%87.5%
Touchdowns3026
TD %57.7%54.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2621
Made2218
Pct84.6%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4631
Made4530
Pct97.8%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →