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NIU
Northern Illinois
HuskiesBalancedMountain West Conference5-7#101 (-8.53)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
25· DOverall
Offense
30· DRating
20· DPer play
24· DConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
55· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.081
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.61
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.40
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense34th
Opp-adjusted defense48th
Offensive EPA/play20th
Defensive EPA/play55th
Offensive success rate23th
Explosiveness17th
Defensive havoc11th
Points per drive16th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate4362Virginia Tech2022OA -0.094 / +0.007similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3913Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3804Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3705Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense354
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Illinois State | 24-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Utah | 17-35 | L | +23.0 | W | 45 | O |
| 3 | @ Nebraska | 8-44 | L | +13.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 5 | @ Vanderbilt | 18-24 | L | +7.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Ball State | 20-27 | L | -4.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 7 | @ Ohio | 39-36 | W | +4.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 8 | @ Miami (OH) | 24-27 | L | -1.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 9 | vs Akron | 49-0 | W | -22.0 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Central Michigan | 10-48 | L | -1.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Toledo | 31-28 | W | +2.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Eastern Michigan | 17-45 | L | -3.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 14 | vs Western Michigan | 17-14 | W | +10.0 | W | 51 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.094 | 19th | -0.031 | 65th |
| Red Zone | -0.008 | 54th | -0.077 | 65th |
| Third Down | -0.141 | 19th | -0.108 | 79th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.082 | 22th | -0.018 | 59th |
| First Half | -0.114 | 15th | -0.046 | 61th |
| Second Half | -0.076 | 25th | -0.015 | 58th |
| Early Downs | -0.052 | 27th | +0.016 | 45th |
| Passing Downs | -0.182 | 9th | -0.067 | 71th |
| Standard Downs | -0.039 | 31th | -0.012 | 54th |
| Goal to Go | -0.040 | 49th | +0.420 | 2th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
358.7
Pts/Drive
1.61
3rd Down%
32.2%
3&Out%
29.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 274 | 338 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 28.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 221 | 224 |
| Rushing | 91 | 101 |
| Passing | 114 | 103 |
| Penalty | 16 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 454 | 431 |
| Yards | 1,693 | 2,135 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 141.1 | 177.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 332 |
| Completions | 215 | 195 |
| Completion % | 58.1% | 58.7% |
| Yards | 2,611 | 2,503 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 4 |
| Passer Rating | 123.93 | 137.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 824 | 763 |
| Yards | 4,304 | 4,638 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 358.7 | 386.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 19 |
| Yards | 83 | 123 |
| Average | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 31 |
| Yards | 141 | 709 |
| Average | 11.8 | 22.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 70 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,949 | 2,520 |
| Average | 42.1 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 11 |
| Yards | 103 | 248 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 23 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 62 | 56 |
| Yards | 539 | 541 |
| Yards / Game | 44.9 | 45.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:45 | 27:15 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 156 |
| Conversions | 57 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 18 |
| Conversions | 12 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 52.2% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 39 |
| Score % | 90.3% | 81.3% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 28 |
| TD % | 61.3% | 58.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 21 |
| Made | 14 | 12 |
| Pct | 77.8% | 57.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 41 |
| Made | 30 | 40 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.