Fourth Down Data
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STAN

Stanford

CardinalBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#101 (-4.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
25· DRating
16· DPer play
11· FConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
19· DPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.048
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.069
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.121
Defensive EPA/play
+0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.202
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.93
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.62
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#106
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 79 spots higher
22 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
17th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
15th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Bowling Green2018OA -0.008 / -0.193similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3942Clemson2026OA -0.116 / +0.005similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3873East Carolina2026OA -0.001 / -0.051similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3824Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: havoc rate, passing offense, turnover rate3555Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: defensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate342

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Kansas State7-24L+3.0L53U
2@ USC42-28W+16.5W51.5O
3@ Vanderbilt41-23W-7.5W56.5O
4vs UCLA24-35L+7.5L--
5vs Oregon31-24W+13.0L51.5U
6@ Arizona State10-28L----
7@ Washington State31-34L-1.5L52.5O
9vs Washington13-20L-2.5L48U
10vs Utah7-52L----
11@ Oregon State14-35L+12.0L56U
12vs California11-41L+2.0L45.5O
13vs Notre Dame14-45L+19.0L52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off18thRush Off27thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off11thPass Def49thRush Def8thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08321th+0.09315th
Red Zone+0.15187th+0.03635th
Third Down-0.20211th+0.04856th
No Garbage Time-0.12516th+0.08418th
First Half-0.13615th+0.1645th
Second Half-0.03236th+0.01541th
Early Downs-0.07026th+0.1393th
Passing Downs-0.13218th-0.00549th
Standard Downs-0.05527th+0.1328th
Goal to Go-0.00755th+0.24515th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.4%Rush 46.6%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
13.5%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
302.0
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
27.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatStanfordOpponents
Scoring
Points245389
Points / Game20.432.4
First Downs
Total201278
Rushing57152
Passing116111
Penalty2815
Rushing
Attempts325493
Yards1,0422,828
Yards / Carry3.25.7
Yards / Game86.8235.7
Touchdowns1333
Passing
Attempts372341
Completions239212
Completion %64.2%62.2%
Yards2,5822,579
Yards / Attempt6.97.6
Touchdowns1615
Interceptions126
Passer Rating130.29136.70
Total Offense
Plays697834
Yards3,6245,407
Yards / Play5.26.5
Yards / Game302.0450.6
Punt Returns
Returns1317
Yards180211
Average13.812.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns325
Yards76469
Average23.913.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6042
Yards2,6001,809
Average43.343.1
Interception Returns
Returns612
Yards8494
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles116
Lost73
Penalties
Penalties7678
Yards534774
Yards / Game44.564.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1731:44
Third Downs
Attempts144158
Conversions4869
Conversion %33.3%43.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1524
Conversions914
Conversion %60.0%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3455
Scores (TD + FG)3047
Score %88.2%85.5%
Touchdowns2335
TD %67.6%63.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1617
Made1113
Pct68.8%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2847
Made2846
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →